Trade, Exchange Rate Regimes and Output Co-Movement: Evidence from the Great Depression
A large body of cross-country empirical evidence identifies monetary policy and trade integration as key determinants of business cycle co-movement. Partially consistent with this, many argue that the re-emergence of the gold standard allowed for the global transmission of a deflationary shock in 1929 that culminated in the Great Depression. It is puzzling then to see decreased co-movement between 1920 and 1927 when international integration increased and nations returned to the gold standard. Fixed exchange rates and global trade were also on the rise after 1932, but co-movement declined again. Our empirical results shows that exchange rate regimes and trade were associated with higher co-movement at the bilateral level while common shocks and exchange control policies also mattered. Much of the fall after 1932 was driven by the rise of smaller blocs of monetary and trade cooperation and an inter-bloc fall in co-movement.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Business Cycle Co-Movement: Evidence from the Great Depression (2011) Journal of Monetary Economics. 58 (4) pp. 362-372. (with Gabe Mathy)|
|Note:||DAE IFM ME|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Straumann, Tobias & Woitek, Ulrich, 2009.
"A pioneer of a new monetary policy? Sweden's price-level targeting of the 1930s revisited,"
European Review of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 251-282, August.
- Tobias Straumann & Ulrich Woitek, 2008. "A pioneer of a new monetary policy? Sweden’s price level targeting of the 1930s revisited," IEW - Working Papers 386, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- David S. Jacks & Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2009.
"Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2767, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jacks, David S; Meissner, Christopher; Novy, Dennis, 2010. "Trade Booms, Trade Busts and Trade Costs," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 33, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- David S. Jacks & Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2009. "Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 15267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wandschneider, Kirsten, 2008.
"The Stability of the Interwar Gold Exchange Standard: Did Politics Matter?,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(01), pages 151-181, March.
- Kirsten Wandschneider, 2005. "The Stability of the Inter-war Gold Exchange Standard. Did Politics Matter?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0518, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
- Choudhri, Ehsan U & Kochin, Levis A, 1980. "The Exchange Rate and the International Transmission of Business Cycle Disturbances: Some Evidence from the Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 565-74, November.
- Andrei A. Levchenko & Julian di Giovanni, 2009.
"Putting the Parts together; Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement,"
IMF Working Papers
09/181, International Monetary Fund.
- Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
- Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2008. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 580, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999.
"Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band pass filter,"
9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
- Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16925. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.