Trade, Exchange Rate Regimes and Output Co-Movement: Evidence from the Great Depression
A large body of cross-country empirical evidence identifies monetary policy and trade integration as key determinants of business cycle co-movement. Partially consistent with this, many argue that the re-emergence of the gold standard allowed for the global transmission of a deflationary shock in 1929 that culminated in the Great Depression. It is puzzling then to see decreased co-movement between 1920 and 1927 when international integration increased and nations returned to the gold standard. Fixed exchange rates and global trade were also on the rise after 1932, but co-movement declined again. Our empirical results shows that exchange rate regimes and trade were associated with higher co-movement at the bilateral level while common shocks and exchange control policies also mattered. Much of the fall after 1932 was driven by the rise of smaller blocs of monetary and trade cooperation and an inter-bloc fall in co-movement.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Business Cycle Co-Movement: Evidence from the Great Depression (2011) Journal of Monetary Economics. 58 (4) pp. 362-372. (with Gabe Mathy)|
|Note:||DAE IFM ME|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jacks, David S. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Novy, Dennis, 2011.
"Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-201, March.
- Jacks, David S; Meissner, Christopher; Novy, Dennis, 2010. "Trade Booms, Trade Busts and Trade Costs," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 33, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- David S. Jacks & Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2009. "Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 15267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David S. Jacks & Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2009. "Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 2767, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kirsten Wandschneider, 2005.
"The Stability of the Inter-war Gold Exchange Standard. Did Politics Matter?,"
Middlebury College Working Paper Series
0518, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
- Wandschneider, Kirsten, 2008. "The Stability of the Interwar Gold Exchange Standard: Did Politics Matter?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(01), pages 151-181, March.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003.
"The Band Pass Filter,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Tom Doan, . "CFFILTER: RATS procedure to perform band pass filter using Christiano-Fitzgerald method," Statistical Software Components RTS00034, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010.
"Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
- Andrei A. Levchenko & Julian Di Giovanni, 2009. "Putting the Parts Together; Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," IMF Working Papers 09/181, International Monetary Fund.
- Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2008. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 580, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999.
"Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
- Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
- Straumann, Tobias & Woitek, Ulrich, 2009. "A pioneer of a new monetary policy? Sweden's price-level targeting of the 1930s revisited," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 251-282, August.
- Choudhri, Ehsan U & Kochin, Levis A, 1980. "The Exchange Rate and the International Transmission of Business Cycle Disturbances: Some Evidence from the Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 565-74, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16925. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.