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Market selection

Author

Listed:
  • Kogan, Leonid
  • Ross, Stephen A.
  • Wang, Jiang
  • Westerfield, Mark M.

Abstract

The hypothesis that financial markets punish traders who make relatively inaccurate forecasts and eventually eliminate the effect of their beliefs on prices is of fundamental importance to the standard modeling paradigm in asset pricing. We establish straightforward necessary and sufficient conditions for agents to survive and to affect prices in the long run in a general setting with minimal restrictions on endowments, beliefs, or utility functions. We describe a new mechanism for the distinction between survival and price impact in a broad class of economies. Our results cover economies with time-separable utility functions, including possibly state-dependent preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Kogan, Leonid & Ross, Stephen A. & Wang, Jiang & Westerfield, Mark M., 2017. "Market selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 209-236.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:168:y:2017:i:c:p:209-236
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2016.12.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Suzuki, Masataka, 2016. "A representative agent asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs and recursive utility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 298-315.
    3. Tran, Ngoc-Khanh & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011. "The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs Are Heterogeneous," Working Paper Series rwp11-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 575-601.
    5. Guerdjikova, Ani & Sciubba, Emanuela, 2015. "Survival with ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 50-94.
    6. Jaroslav Borovicka, 2011. "Survival and long-run dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs under recursive preferences," Working Paper Series WP-2011-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    7. Chien, YiLi & Cole, Harold L. & Lustig, Hanno, 2014. "Implications of heterogeneity in preferences, beliefs and asset trading technologies for the macroeconomy," Working Papers 2014-14, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Pietro Dindo, 2015. "Survival in Speculative Markets," LEM Papers Series 2015/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Zhi Da & Borja Larrain & Clemens Sialm & José Tessada, 2016. "Coordinated Noise Trading: Evidence from Pension Fund Reallocations," NBER Working Papers 22161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Emilio Barucci & Marco Casna, 2014. "On the Market Selection Hypothesis in a Mean Reverting Environment," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 101-126, June.
    11. Fu, Chengbo & Jacoby, Gady & Wang, Yan, 2015. "Investor sentiment and portfolio selection," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 266-273.
    12. repec:eee:dyncon:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:190-205 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Heterogeneous beliefs; Price impact; Survival; General equilibrium;

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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