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Market Selection

Author

Listed:
  • Leonid Kogan
  • Stephen Ross
  • Jiang Wang
  • Mark M. Westerfield

Abstract

The hypothesis that financial markets punish traders who make relatively inaccurate forecasts and eventually eliminate the effect of their beliefs on prices is of fundamental importance to the standard modeling paradigm in asset pricing. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for agents making inferior forecasts to survive and to affect prices in the long run in a general setting with minimal restrictions on endowments, beliefs, or utility functions. We show that the market selection hypothesis is valid for economies with bounded endowments or bounded relative risk aversion, but it cannot be substantially generalized to a broader class of models. Instead, survival is determined by a comparison of the forecast errors to risk attitudes. The price impact of inaccurate forecasts is distinct from survival because price impact is determined by the volatility of traders' consumption shares rather than by their level. Our results also apply to economies with state-dependent preferences, such as habit formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid Kogan & Stephen Ross & Jiang Wang & Mark M. Westerfield, 2009. "Market Selection," NBER Working Papers 15189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15189
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Suzuki, Masataka, 2016. "A representative agent asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs and recursive utility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 298-315.
    3. Tran, Ngoc-Khanh & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011. "The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs Are Heterogeneous," Working Paper Series rwp11-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 575-601.
    5. Guerdjikova, Ani & Sciubba, Emanuela, 2015. "Survival with ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 50-94.
    6. Jaroslav Borovicka, 2011. "Survival and long-run dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs under recursive preferences," Working Paper Series WP-2011-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    7. Chien, YiLi & Cole, Harold L. & Lustig, Hanno, 2014. "Implications of heterogeneity in preferences, beliefs and asset trading technologies for the macroeconomy," Working Papers 2014-14, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Pietro Dindo, 2015. "Survival in Speculative Markets," LEM Papers Series 2015/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Zhi Da & Borja Larrain & Clemens Sialm & José Tessada, 2016. "Coordinated Noise Trading: Evidence from Pension Fund Reallocations," NBER Working Papers 22161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Emilio Barucci & Marco Casna, 2014. "On the Market Selection Hypothesis in a Mean Reverting Environment," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 101-126, June.
    11. Fu, Chengbo & Jacoby, Gady & Wang, Yan, 2015. "Investor sentiment and portfolio selection," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 266-273.
    12. repec:eee:dyncon:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:190-205 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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