IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v44y2014i1p101-126.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Market Selection Hypothesis in a Mean Reverting Environment

Author

Listed:
  • Emilio Barucci
  • Marco Casna

Abstract

We investigate the market selection hypothesis in a mean reverting environment. We consider three models varying the endowment process and agents’ beliefs and we show that with a constant relative risk aversion utility, controlling for the discount factor, agents with incorrect beliefs about the level of the endowment process cannot survive. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Barucci & Marco Casna, 2014. "On the Market Selection Hypothesis in a Mean Reverting Environment," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 101-126, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:44:y:2014:i:1:p:101-126
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-013-9400-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10614-013-9400-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-013-9400-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
    2. Hirshleifer, David & Luo, Guo Ying, 2001. "On the survival of overconfident traders in a competitive securities market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 73-84, January.
    3. Kogan, Leonid & Ross, Stephen A. & Wang, Jiang & Westerfield, Mark M., 2017. "Market selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 209-236.
    4. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 211-211.
    5. Leonid Kogan & Stephen A. Ross & Jiang Wang & Mark M. Westerfield, 2006. "The Price Impact and Survival of Irrational Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 195-229, February.
    6. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
    7. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    8. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, July.
    9. Jiang Wang, 1993. "A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices Under Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 249-282.
    10. Basak, Suleyman, 2000. "A model of dynamic equilibrium asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs and extraneous risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 63-95, January.
    11. Pok-sang Lam & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September.
    12. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
    13. De Long, J Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H & Waldmann, Robert J, 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-19, January.
    14. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    15. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
    16. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
    17. Andrew B. Abel, "undated". "Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 09-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    18. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
    19. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
    20. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2006. "Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? Implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1027-1043, June.
    21. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chueh-Yung Tsao & Ya-Chi Huang, 2018. "Revisiting the issue of survivability and market efficiency with the Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(3), pages 537-560, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 575-601.
    2. Hirshleifer, David & Lo, Andrew W. & Zhang, Ruixun, 2023. "Social contagion and the survival of diverse investment styles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Andrew W. Lo & H. Allen Orr & Ruixun Zhang, 2018. "The growth of relative wealth and the Kelly criterion," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 49-67, April.
    4. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
    5. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sihvonen, Markus, 2019. "Market selection with idiosyncratic uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 143-160.
    7. Dindo, Pietro, 2019. "Survival in speculative markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1-43.
    8. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3495 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Zeckhauser, Richard Jay & Tran, Ngoc-Khanh, 2011. "The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs are Heterogeneous," Scholarly Articles 5027955, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    11. Leonid Kogan & Stephen A. Ross & Jiang Wang & Mark M. Westerfield, 2006. "The Price Impact and Survival of Irrational Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 195-229, February.
    12. Peter A. F. Fraser‐Mackenzie & Tiejun Ma & Ming‐Chien Sung & Johnnie E. V. Johnson, 2019. "Let's Call it Quits: Break‐Even Effects in the Decision to Stop Taking Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(7), pages 1560-1581, July.
    13. Massari, Filippo, 2019. "Market selection in large economies: a matter of luck," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), May.
    14. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 579-629, April.
    15. He, Xue-Zhong & Shi, Lei, 2017. "Index portfolio and welfare analysis under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 64-79.
    16. Lei Shi, 2010. "Portfolio Analysis and Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2010, January-A.
    17. Yao, Jing & Li, Duan, 2013. "Bounded rationality as a source of loss aversion and optimism: A study of psychological adaptation under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 18-31.
    18. Roman Muraviev, 2013. "Market selection with learning and catching up with the Joneses," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 273-304, April.
    19. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Raman Uppal, 2014. "Asset Prices with Heterogeneity in Preferences and Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 519-580.
    20. Daniel Andrei & Bruce Carlin & Michael Hasler, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Disagreement and Uncertainty About the Length of Business Cycles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2900-2923, June.
    21. Kogan, Leonid & Ross, Stephen A. & Wang, Jiang & Westerfield, Mark M., 2017. "Market selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 209-236.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market selection; Heterogeneous opinions; Mean reversion; Growth; D53; D84; G11; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:44:y:2014:i:1:p:101-126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.