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Survival with Ambiguity

Author

Listed:
  • Ani Guerdijkova

    (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise)

  • Emanuela Sciubba

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

We analyze a market populated by expected utility maximizers and smooth ambiguity-averse consumers. We study conditions under which ambiguity-averse consumers survive and affect prices in the limit. If ambiguity vanishes with time or if the economy exhibits no aggregate risk, ambiguity-averse consumers survive, but have no long-run impact on prices. In both scenarios, ambiguity-averse consumers are fully insured against ambiguity in equilibrium and, thus, behave as expected utility maximizers with correct beliefs. If ambiguity-averse consumers are not fully insured against ambiguity, they behave as expected utility maximizers with effectively wrong beliefs and an effective discount factor which might be higher or lower than their actual discount factor. Using this insight, we demonstrate that consumers with constant absolute ambiguity aversion vanish in expectations, whenever the economy faces aggregate risk. In contrast, consumers with constant relative (and thus, decreasing absolute) ambiguity aversion survive in expectation and with positive probability and have a non-trivial impact on prices in the limit.

Suggested Citation

  • Ani Guerdijkova & Emanuela Sciubba, 2012. "Survival with Ambiguity," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1216, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anwar, Sajid & Zheng, Mingli, 2012. "Competitive insurance market in the presence of ambiguity," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 79-84.
    2. Simon Quemin, 2016. "Intertemporal abatement decisions under ambiguity aversion in a cap and trade," Working Papers 1604, Chaire Economie du climat.
    3. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Momentum and Reversal in Financial Markets with Persistent Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2018:03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    4. Loic Berger & Valentina Bosetti, 2016. "Ellsberg re-revisited: An experiment disentangling model uncertainty and risk aversion," Working Papers 576, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Pietro Dindo & Filippo Massari, 2017. "The Wisdom of the Crowd in Dynamic Economies," Working Papers 2017:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Massimo Marinacci, 2015. "Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1022-1100, December.
    7. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2015. "Long-run Heterogeneity in an Exchange Economy with Fixed-Mix Traders," LEM Papers Series 2015/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Pietro Dindo, 2015. "Survival in Speculative Markets," LEM Papers Series 2015/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. repec:eee:eecrev:v:103:y:2018:i:c:p:108-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Araujo, Aloisio & da Silva, Pietro & Faro, José Heleno, 2016. "Ambiguity aversion in the long run: “To disagree, we must also agree”," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 242-256.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ambiguity; ambiguity-aversion; survival;

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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