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Ambiguity Preferences and Portfolio Choices

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  • Milo Bianchi

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Jean-Marc Tallon

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

We match administrative panel data on portfolio choices with survey data on preferences over ambiguity. We show that ambiguity averse investors bear more risk, due to a lack of diversification. In particular, they exhibit a form of home bias that leads to higher exposure to the domestic relative to the international stock market. While more sensitive to market factors, their returns are on average higher, suggesting that ambiguity averse investors need not be driven out of the market for risky assets. We also show that these investors rebalance their portfolio more actively and in a contrarian direction relative to past market trends, which allow them to keep their risk exposure relatively constant over time. We discuss these findings in relation to the theoretical literature on portfolio choice under ambiguity.

Suggested Citation

  • Milo Bianchi & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2019. "Ambiguity Preferences and Portfolio Choices," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-02923452, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-02923452
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.3006
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02923452
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Billot & Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2020. "Market Allocations under Ambiguity: A Survey," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 71(2), pages 267-282.
    2. Milo Bianchi, 2018. "Financial Literacy and Portfolio Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 831-859, April.
    3. Jim Engle-Warnick & Diego Pulido & Marine de Montaignac, 2016. "Trust, ambiguity, and financial decision-making," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-44, CIRANO.
    4. Luo, Di & Mishra, Tapas & Yarovaya, Larisa & Zhang, Zhuang, 2021. "Investing during a Fintech Revolution: Ambiguity and return risk in cryptocurrencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Jeleva, Meglena & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 351-383, Mars-Juin.
    6. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Federico Echenique & Taisuke Imai & Kota Saito, 2019. "Decision Making under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study in Market Settings," Papers 1911.00946, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    8. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    9. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01er:dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    10. Bokern, Paul & Linde, Jona & Riedl, Arno & Werner, Peter, 2023. "The robustness of preferences during a crisis: The case of COVID-19," Research Memorandum 012, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    11. Sujoy Mukerji & Han N. Ozsoylev & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2023. "Trading Ambiguity: A Tale Of Two Heterogeneities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1127-1164, August.
    12. Kim, Hwa-Sung, 2021. "Risk management and optimal capital structure under ambiguity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    13. Li, Wenhui & Ockenfels, Peter & Wilde, Christian, 2021. "The effect of ambiguity on price formation and trading behavior in financial markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 326, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Tai-Yuen Hon & Massoud Moslehpour & Kai-Yin Woo, 2021. "Review on Behavioral Finance with Empirical Evidence," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(4), pages 15-41, December.
    15. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2021. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Value of Diversification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1639-1647, March.
    16. Guohui Guan & Zongxia Liang & Yilun Song, 2022. "The continuous-time pre-commitment KMM problem in incomplete markets," Papers 2210.13833, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    17. Farago, Adam & Holmén, Martin & Holzmeister, Felix & Kirchler, Michael & Razen, Michael, 2019. "Cognitive Skills and Economic Preferences in the Fund Industry," OSF Preprints 964ba, Center for Open Science.
    18. Philipp K. Illeditsch & Jayant V. Ganguli & Scott Condie, 2021. "Information Inertia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 443-479, February.
    19. Chen Li, 2017. "Are the poor worse at dealing with ambiguity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 239-268, June.
    20. Dlugosch, Dennis & Wang, Mei, 2022. "Ambiguity, ambiguity aversion and foreign bias: New evidence from international panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    21. Naqvi, Syed Muhammad Waqar Azeem & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Orangzab & Ali, Muhammad, 2016. "Value at Risk at Asian Emerging Stock Markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 28(3), pages 311-319.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Portfolio choice; Diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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