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Belief Heterogeneity and Survival in Incomplete Markets

Author

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  • Tarek Coury
  • Emanuela Sciubba

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

In complete markets economies (Sandroni [15]), or in economies with Pareto optimal outcomes (Blume and Easley [9]), the market selection hypothesis holds, as long as traders have identical discount factors. Traders who survive must have beliefs that merge with the truth. We show that in incomplete markets, regardless of traders’ discount factors, the market selects for a range of beliefs, at least some of which do not merge with the truth. We also show that impatient traders with incorrect beliefs can survive and that these incorrect beliefs impact prices. These beliefs may be chosen so that they are far from the truth.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarek Coury & Emanuela Sciubba, 2006. "Belief Heterogeneity and Survival in Incomplete Markets," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0613, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0613
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beker, Pablo & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2010. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium: A characterisation when markets are incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2133-2185, November.
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    3. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, July.
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    5. Emanuela Sciubba, 2005. "Asymmetric information and survival in financial markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(2), pages 353-379, February.
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    7. Biais, Bruno & Shadur, Raphael, 2000. "Darwinian selection does not eliminate irrational traders," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 469-490, March.
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    9. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Bewley, Truman F., 1972. "Existence of equilibria in economies with infinitely many commodities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 514-540, June.
    11. Emanuela Sciubba, 2006. "The evolution of portfolio rules and the capital asset pricing model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(1), pages 123-150, September.
    12. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58, pages 211-211.
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    14. Araujo, Aloisio, 1985. "Lack of Pareto Optimal Allocations in Economies with Infinitely Many Commodities: The Need for Impatience," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 455-461, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Momentum and Reversal in Financial Markets with Persistent Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2018:03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Tilman Klumpp & Xuejuan Su, 2013. "A theory of perceived discrimination," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(1), pages 153-180, May.
    3. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2014. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 1-30, March.
    4. Guerdjikova, Ani & Sciubba, Emanuela, 2015. "Survival with ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 50-94.
    5. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2015. "Long-run Heterogeneity in an Exchange Economy with Fixed-Mix Traders," LEM Papers Series 2015/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Rodrigo Raad, 2016. "Recursive equilibrium with Price Perfect Foresight and a minimal state space," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(1), pages 1-54, January.
    7. Dan Vu Cao, 2010. "Collateral Shortages, Asset Price And Investment Volatility With Heterogeneous Beliefs," 2010 Meeting Papers 1233, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Pablo F. Beker & Subir Chattopadhyay, 2005. "Economic Survival when Markets are Incomplete," Levine's Working Paper Archive 784828000000000422, David K. Levine.
    9. Beker, Pablo & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2010. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium: A characterisation when markets are incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2133-2185, November.
    10. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2016. "Live fast, die young," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 265-278, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incomplete markets; market selection hypothesis; belief selection;

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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