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Asymmetric Information and Survival in Financial Markets

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  • Sciubba, E.

Abstract

In the evolutionary setting for a financial market developed by Blume and Easley (1992) the author considers an infinitely repeated version of a model B la Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) with asymmetrically informed traders. Informed traders observe the realisation of a payoff relevant signal before making their portfolio decisions. Uninformed traders do not have direct access to this kind of information, but can partially infer it from market prices. As a counterpart to their privileged information, informed traders pay a per period cost. As a result, information acquisition triggers a trade-off in this setting. It is proved that, so long as information is costly, a strictly positive measure of uninformed traders will survive. This result contributes to the literature on noise trading. It suggests that Friedman's (1953) argument is too simplistic. Traders whose beliefs are wrong' according to the best available information, in fact, are not wiped out by market forces and do affect asset prices in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Sciubba, E., 1999. "Asymmetric Information and Survival in Financial Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9908, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9908
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariano Croce & Riccardo Colacito, 2009. "Risk sensitive allocations with multiple goods in international finance. Existence, survivorship, and dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 1201, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Antonio Jiménez-Martínez, 2015. "A model of belief influence in large social networks," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(1), pages 21-59, May.
    3. Qingbin Gong & Xundi Diao, 2022. "Bounded rationality, asymmetric information and mispricing in financial markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(1), pages 235-264, July.
    4. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
    5. David Goldbaum, 2003. "Profitable technical trading rules as a source of price instability," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 220-229.
    6. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2019. "Market Selection With Differential Financial Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(5), pages 1693-1762, September.
    7. Tarek Coury & Emanuela Sciubba, 2012. "Belief heterogeneity and survival in incomplete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 49(1), pages 37-58, January.
    8. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
    9. Rabah Amir & Igor Evstigneev & Klaus Schenk-Hoppé, 2013. "Asset market games of survival: a synthesis of evolutionary and dynamic games," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 121-144, May.
    10. David Goldbaum, 2013. "Learning and Adaptation as a Source of Market Failure," Working Paper Series 14, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Filippo Massari, 2021. "Price probabilities: a class of Bayesian and non-Bayesian prediction rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(1), pages 133-166, July.
    12. Sergei Belkov & Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens, 2020. "An evolutionary finance model with a risk-free asset," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 593-607, December.
    13. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2019. "Momentum and reversal in financial markets with persistent heterogeneity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 455-487, December.
    14. Evstigneev, Igor & Hens, Thorsten & Potapova, Valeriya & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus R., 2020. "Behavioral equilibrium and evolutionary dynamics in asset markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 121-135.
    15. Goldbaum, David, 2017. "Divergent Behavior in Markets with Idiosyncratic Private Information," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 181-213, September.
    16. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Long-run heterogeneity in an exchange economy with fixed-mix traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 407-447, August.
    17. Rabah Amir & Sergei Belkov & Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens, 2022. "An evolutionary finance model with short selling and endogenous asset supply," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(2), pages 655-677, April.
    18. Luo, Guo Ying, 2012. "Conservative traders, natural selection and market efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 310-335.
    19. Guerdjikova, Ani, 2004. "Evolution of wealth and asset prices in markets with case-based investors," Papers 04-49, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    20. I. V. Evstigneev & T. Hens & M. J. Vanaei, 2023. "Evolutionary finance: a model with endogenous asset payoffs," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 117-143, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evolution; Portfolio rules; Partially revealing REE; Noise trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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