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The evolution of portfolio rules and the capital asset pricing model

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  • Emanuela Sciubba

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to test the performance of the standard version of CAPM in an evolutionary framework. We imagine a heterogeneous population of long-lived agents who invest their wealth according to differential porfolio rules and ask what is the fate of those who happen to behave as prescribed by CAPM. In a complete securities market with aggregate uncertainty, it is shown that traders who either believe' in CAPM and use it as a rule of thumb, or are endowed with genuine mean-variance preferences, under some very weak conditions, vanish in the long run. A sufficient condition to drive CAPM or mean-variance traders' wealth shares to zero is shown to be that an investor endowed with a logarithmic utility function enters the market. Finally, the robustness of the results is checked, allowing for different kinds of heterogeneity among traders.
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  • Emanuela Sciubba, 2006. "The evolution of portfolio rules and the capital asset pricing model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(1), pages 123-150, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:29:y:2006:i:1:p:123-150
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-005-0013-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tarek Coury & Emanuela Sciubba, 2012. "Belief heterogeneity and survival in incomplete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 49(1), pages 37-58, January.
    2. Emanuela Sciubba, 2006. "The evolution of portfolio rules and the capital asset pricing model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(1), pages 123-150, September.
    3. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé & Martin Stalder, 2002. "An Application of Evolutionary Finance to Firms Listed in the Swiss Market Index," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(IV), pages 465-487, December.
    4. G. Caldarelli & M. Piccioni & E. Sciubba, 2000. "A Numerical Study on the Evolution of Portfolio Rules: Is CAPM Fit for Nasdaq?," Papers cond-mat/0009437, arXiv.org.
    5. repec:spr:joecth:v:66:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-017-1066-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Evolutionary stability of portfolio rules in incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 43-66, February.
    7. repec:spr:jeicoo:v:12:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11403-015-0157-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spr:jeicoo:v:13:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11403-017-0192-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chen, Shu-Heng & Huang, Ya-Chi, 2008. "Risk preference, forecasting accuracy and survival dynamics: Simulations based on a multi-asset agent-based artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 702-717, September.
    10. Guerdjikova, Ani, 2004. "Evolution of wealth and asset prices in markets with case-based investors," Papers 04-49, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    11. Emanuela Sciubba, 2005. "Asymmetric information and survival in financial markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(2), pages 353-379, February.
    12. Guido Caldarelli & M. Piccioni & E. Sciubba, 2000. "A Numerical Study On The Evolution Of Portfolio Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 334, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evolution; Market selection; Wealth dynamics; Portfolio rules; CAPM; C61; D81; G11;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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