Evolution, Efficiency and Noise Traders in a One-Sided Auction Market
This paper uses an evolutionary approach incorporating the idea of natural selection to examine market behavior in a one-sided buyer auction market. Even with no traders' rationality (such as rational expectations and adaptive learning) and with each trader's behavior preprogrammed with its own inherent and fixed probabilities of overpredicting, predicting correctly and underpredicting the fundamental value of the asset, an informationally efficient market can occur. Traders' behavior is consistent with systematic patterns of judgment biases as documented in the psychological literature. Specifically, shares of one unit of a risky asset are sold at the beginning and liquidated at the end of each time period. The asset's liquidation value is the product of its fundamental value and the exponential of a random shock. Buyers enter the market sequentially over time and each buyer merely acts upon its own inherent and fixed probabilities of overpredicting, predicting correctly and underpredicting the fundamental value. As time goes by there is a constant redistribution of wealth toward buyers who make better predictions. This paper shows that if each buyer's initial wealth is sufficiently small relative to the market supply and if the variation in the random shock to the asset is sufficiently small, then as time gets sufficiently large, the proportion of time, that the asset price is arbitrarily close to the fundamental liquidation value, converges to one with probability one. This conclusion is established under a weak restriction regarding the presence of traders with sufficiently low probabilities of overpredicting the fundamental value.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/conference/SCE2001/SCE2001.html|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
- Sanford Grossman, 1978. "Further results on the informational efficiency of competitive stock markets," Special Studies Papers 114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-37, February.
- Antoni Bosch-Domenech & Shyam Sunder, 2000.
"Tracking the Invisible Hand: Convergence of Double Auctions to Competitive Equilibrium,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(3), pages 257-284, December.
- Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Shyam Sunder, 1996. "Tracking the invisible hand: Convergence of double auctions to competitive equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 91, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Bosch, A. & Sunder, S., 1994. "Tracking the Invisible Hand: Convergence of Double Auctions to Competitive Equilibrium," GSIA Working Papers 1994-11, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Shyam NMI Sunder & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, 2001. "Tracking the Invisible Hand: Convergence of Double Auctions to Competitive Equilibrium," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm204, Yale School of Management.
- Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1982.
"Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational-Expectations Models,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 663-98, August.
- Plott, Charles R. & Sunder, Shyam., . "Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 331, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, .
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers
_124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Forsythe, Robert & Palfrey, Thomas R. & Plott, Charles R., .
"Asset Valuation in an Experimental Market,"
299, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Grossman, Sanford, 1978. "Further results on the informational efficiency of competitive stock markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 81-101, June.
- Luo Guo Ying, 1995. "Evolution and Market Competition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 223-250, October.
- Lettau, Martin, 1997. "Explaining the facts with adaptive agents: The case of mutual fund flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1117-1147, June.
- Wilson, Robert, 1979. "Auctions of Shares," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 675-89, November.
- Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
- Luo, Guo Ying, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Natural Selection in a Commodity Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 647-74.
- Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.