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Belief heterogeneity and survival in incomplete markets

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  • Tarek Coury
  • Emanuela Sciubba

Abstract

In complete markets economies (Sandroni [15]), or in economies with Pareto optimal outcomes (Blume and Easley [9]), the market selection hypothesis holds, as long as traders have identical discount factors. Traders who survive must have beliefs that merge with the truth. We show that in incomplete markets, regardless of traders’ discount factors, the market selects for a range of beliefs, at least some of which do not merge with the truth. We also show that impatient traders with incorrect beliefs can survive and that these incorrect beliefs impact prices. These beliefs may be chosen so that they are far from the truth.
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  • Tarek Coury & Emanuela Sciubba, 2012. "Belief heterogeneity and survival in incomplete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 49(1), pages 37-58, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:49:y:2012:i:1:p:37-58
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-010-0531-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2014. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 1-30, March.
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    3. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2018. "Heuristic Modes of Decision Making and Survival in Financial Markets," Post-Print hal-02086267, HAL.
    4. Evstigneev, Igor & Hens, Thorsten & Potapova, Valeriya & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus R., 2020. "Behavioral equilibrium and evolutionary dynamics in asset markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 121-135.
    5. Rodrigo Raad, 2016. "Recursive equilibrium with Price Perfect Foresight and a minimal state space," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(1), pages 1-54, January.
    6. Pablo F. Beker & Subir Chattopadhyay, 2005. "Economic Survival when Markets are Incomplete," Levine's Working Paper Archive 784828000000000422, David K. Levine.
    7. Kim Gannon & Hanzhe Zhang, 2020. "An Evolutionary Justification for Overconfidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2494-2504.
    8. Beker, Pablo & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2010. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium: A characterisation when markets are incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2133-2185, November.
    9. Guerdjikova, Ani & Sciubba, Emanuela, 2015. "Survival with ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 50-94.
    10. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2016. "Live fast, die young," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 265-278, June.
    11. Sergei Belkov & Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens, 2020. "An evolutionary finance model with a risk-free asset," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 593-607, December.
    12. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2019. "Momentum and reversal in financial markets with persistent heterogeneity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 455-487, December.
    13. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Long-run heterogeneity in an exchange economy with fixed-mix traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 407-447, August.
    14. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2018. "Intertemporal Portfolio Choice with Incorrect Beliefs and Aversion to Surprise," Post-Print hal-02086151, HAL.
    15. Tilman Klumpp & Xuejuan Su, 2013. "A theory of perceived discrimination," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(1), pages 153-180, May.
    16. Filippo Massari, 2021. "Price probabilities: a class of Bayesian and non-Bayesian prediction rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(1), pages 133-166, July.
    17. Chueh-Yung Tsao & Ya-Chi Huang, 2018. "Revisiting the issue of survivability and market efficiency with the Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(3), pages 537-560, October.
    18. Rabah Amir & Sergei Belkov & Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens, 2022. "An evolutionary finance model with short selling and endogenous asset supply," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(2), pages 655-677, April.
    19. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2019. "Market Selection With Differential Financial Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(5), pages 1693-1762, September.
    20. Mikhail Zhitlukhin, 2022. "A continuous-time asset market game with short-lived assets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 587-630, July.
    21. Dan Vu Cao, 2010. "Collateral Shortages, Asset Price And Investment Volatility With Heterogeneous Beliefs," 2010 Meeting Papers 1233, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. I. V. Evstigneev & T. Hens & M. J. Vanaei, 2023. "Evolutionary finance: a model with endogenous asset payoffs," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 117-143, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incomplete markets; Market selection hypothesis; Belief selection; D51; D52; D80; G10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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