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Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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  • Timothy Cogley
  • Thomas J. Sargent
  • Viktor Tsyrennikov

Abstract

Two types of agents have diverse beliefs about the law of motion for an exogenous endowment. One type knows the true law of motion and the other learns about it via Bayes' theorem. Financial market structure affects the dynamics of the distribution of financial wealth. When markets are complete, the learning agent loses wealth, as in Blume and Easley (2006). The absence of markets for some Arrow securities alters the direction in which wealth is transferred relative to a complete markets economy. In an economy in which only a risk-free bond is traded, the learning agent accumulates wealth, both agents survive asymptotically, and the more knowledgeable agent is driven to his debt limit.
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Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2014. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 1-30, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:124:y:2014:i:575:p:1-30
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecoj.2014.124.issue-575
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    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2014. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 1-30, March.
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    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2014. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Dindo, Pietro & Massari, Filippo, 2020. "The wisdom of the crowd in dynamic economies," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), November.
    3. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2020. "Market selection with an endogenous state," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 51-59.
    4. Blume, Lawrence E. & Cogley, Timothy & Easley, David A. & Sargent, Thomas J. & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2018. "A case for incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 191-221.
    5. Dindo, Pietro, 2019. "Survival in speculative markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1-43.
    6. Bonam, Dennis & Goy, Gavin, 2019. "Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 25-42.
    7. Chen, Yunmin & Guo, Jang-Ting & Krause, Alan, 2020. "The credibility of commitment and optimal nonlinear savings taxation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Long-run heterogeneity in an exchange economy with fixed-mix traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 407-447, August.
    9. Acedański, Jan, 2017. "Heterogeneous expectations and the distribution of wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 162-175.
    10. Beker, Pablo F & Espino, Emilio, 2013. "Too Good to Be True: Asset Pricing Implications of Pessimism," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1031, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Rarytska, Olena & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2016. "Capital Flows, Beliefs, and Capital Controls," Working Papers 250031, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    12. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2019. "Market Selection With Differential Financial Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(5), pages 1693-1762, September.
    13. Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Wealth Distribution, and Asset Markets with Risk of Default," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 156-160, May.
    14. Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2015. "Investment, speculation, and financial regulation," 2015 Meeting Papers 627, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2019. "Momentum and reversal in financial markets with persistent heterogeneity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 455-487, December.
    16. Yili Chien & Harold Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2016. "Implications of Heterogeneity in Preferences, Beliefs and Asset Trading Technologies in an Endowment Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 215-239, April.
    17. Beker, Pablo F. & Espino, Emilio, 2013. "Too Good to Be True: Asset Pricing Implications of Pessimism," Economic Research Papers 270428, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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