IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_4_408673.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Equilibres et anticipations

Author

Listed:
  • Bernard Walliser

Abstract

[eng] Equilibria and expectation. Bernard Walliser. This article makes a survey of recent contributions concerning economic expectations and their influence on economic equilibria, excluding the problem of empirical tests of expectation schemes and analysis of economic policy effects of the models on elimination. The possibility of identification between expected and achieved endogeneous variables tous explored simultaneously in the field of macro-economics (rational expectations), microeconomics (perfect foresights) and socio-economics (self-fulfilling profhecies), and leads to multiple solutions being obtained by alternative expectation models, identically confirmed at equilibrium. The types of equilibria resulting from multi-level crossed expectations between agents were also formalized in the context of duopoly theory and convergence conditions of learning processes on agents expectation models are progressively worked out. [fre] L'article établit un survey des contributions récentes concernant les anticipations des agents économiques et leur influence sur les équilibres économiques, à l'exclusion du problème des tests empiriques des schémas d'anticipation et de l'analyse des conséquences de politique économique des modèles étudiés. La possibilité de coïncidence entre variables endogènes anticipées et réalisées a été explorée aussi bien dans le champ macroéconomique (anticipations rationnelles), micro­économique (prévisions parfaites) et socio-économique (prophéties auto-réalisatrices) et conduit à des solutions multiples pouvant être engendrées par des modèles d'anticipation alternatifs, également confirmés à l'équilibre. Les types d'équilibre résultant d'anticipations croisées entre agents à plusieurs niveaux ont aussi été formalisés dans le cadre de la théorie du duopole et les conditions de conver­gence des processus d'apprentissage des agents sur leurs modèles d'anticipation sont progressivement dégagées.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Walliser, 1982. "Equilibres et anticipations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 594-638.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_4_408673
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1982.408673
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1982.408673
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/reco.1982.408673
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_4_408673
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/reco.1982.408673?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank Hahn, 1978. "On Non-Walrasian Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 1-17.
    2. David G. Mayes, 1981. "The Controversy Over Rational Expectations," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 96(1), pages 53-61, May.
    3. John Laitner, 1980. ""Rational" Duopoly Equilibria," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 95(4), pages 641-662.
    4. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
    5. Kydland, Finn, 1975. "Noncooperative and Dominant Player Solutions in Discrete Dynamic Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 321-335, June.
    6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    7. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-678, May.
    8. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
    9. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1981. "The effects of devaluation and foreign price disturbances under rational expectations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 33-60, February.
    10. Stein, Jerome L, 1980. "The Dynamics of Spot and Forward Prices in an Efficient Foreign Exchange Market with Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 565-583, September.
    11. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1969. "A bayesian approach to the theory of expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 220-227, August.
    12. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    13. Kantor, Brian, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Economic Thought," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1422-1441, December.
    14. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1048, November.
    15. Jerry Green, 1977. "The Non-existence of Informational Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 451-463.
    16. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    17. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 465-465.
    18. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    19. Shiller, Robert J., 1978. "Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models : A critical review," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-44, January.
    20. Jordan, J S, 1980. "On the Predictability of Economic Events," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 955-972, May.
    21. Sanford J. Grossman, 1981. "An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations Under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 541-559.
    22. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    23. Kreps, David M., 1977. "A note on "fulfilled expectations" equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-43, February.
    24. Nancy L. Stokey, 1981. "Rational Expectations and Durable Goods Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(1), pages 112-128, Spring.
    25. Sanford J. Grossman, 1977. "The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 431-449.
    26. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    27. Varian, Hal R, 1977. "Non-Walrasian Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 573-590, April.
    28. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
    29. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-190, February.
    30. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1385, September.
    31. Taylor, John B, 1975. "Monetary Policy during a Transition to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(5), pages 1009-1021, October.
    32. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    33. Michael Spence, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Mongin & Pierre-André Chiappori, 1984. "Un modèle de politique monétaire avec aléas stratégiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(5), pages 831-870.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Catherine Rouzaud, 1983. "Anticipations rationnelles et information révélée par les prix : une introduction," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(6), pages 1116-1144.
    3. John B. Taylor, 1983. "Rational Expectations Models in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 1224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    5. A. Corcos & J-P Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 264-281.
    6. Issing Otmar & Wieland Volker, 2013. "Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 423-445, June.
    7. Garcia, René, 1986. "La théorie économique de l’information : exposé synthétique de la littérature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 62(1), pages 88-109, mars.
    8. Beth Allen & James S. Jordan, 1998. "The existence of rational expectations equilibrium: a retrospective," Staff Report 252, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Tsai, Grace Yueh-Hsiang, 1989. "A dynamic model of the U.S. cotton market with rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000012168, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Emanuela Sciubba, 2005. "Asymmetric information and survival in financial markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(2), pages 353-379, February.
    11. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
    12. James Dow & Gary Gorton, 2006. "Noise Traders," NBER Working Papers 12256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
    14. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050, Elsevier.
    15. Hwang, Chiun-Lin, 1989. "Optimal monetary policy in an open macroeconomic model with rational expectation," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010197, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    17. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    18. Francesco Carravetta & Marco Sorge, 2010. "A “Nearly Ideal” Solution to Linear Time-Varying Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 331-353, April.
    19. Nitzan, Jonathan, 1990. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Inflation and Unemployment," EconStor Preprints 157850, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_4_408673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.