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Growth, Expectations, and Tariffs

  • Seppo Honkapohja
  • Arja H. Turunen-Red
  • Alan D. Woodland

We study a many country endogenous growth model in which decisions about innovation and new investment are influenced by growth expectations. Adaptive learning dynamics determine country-specific short run transition paths. Countries differ in basic structural parameters and may impose tariffs on imports of capital goods. Numerical experiments illustrate adjustment dynamics that follow the use of tariffs. We show that countries that limit trade in capital goods can experience dynamic gains both in growth and utility and that such gains persist the longer the larger the structural advantages of the region that applies tariffs. Substantial differences in the levels of innovation, consumption, output, and utility can appear, and asymmetries in economic outcomes that were present before trade restrictions are made more severe.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2011/wp-cesifo-2011-04/cesifo1_wp3435.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3435.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3435
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  1. Honkapohja, S. & Turunen-Red, A., 1999. "Complementarity, Growth and Trade," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 461, Department of Economics.
  2. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2006. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 284-309, April.
  3. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Anticipated Utility And Rational Expectations As Approximations Of Bayesian Decision Making," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 185-221, 02.
  4. Baldwin, Richard E. & Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P., 1998. "Global Income Divergence, Trade and Industrialisation: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," Working Paper Series 496, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  5. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2007. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," Discussion Papers 07-006, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  6. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michael E. Waugh, 2009. "International trade and income differences," Staff Report 435, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-36, July.
  10. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Walz, Uwe, 1997. "Growth and Deeper Regional Integration in a Three-County Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 492-507, November.
  12. Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2002. "R&D, Implementation and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," NBER Working Papers 9104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Paul Romer & George Evans & Seppo Hokapohja, . "Growth Cycles," Home Pages _001, Stanford University.
  14. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 961-87, December.
  15. Antràs, Pol & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2008. "Organizations and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 6965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," CDMA Working Paper Series 200717, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  17. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2005. "Great expectations and the end of the depression," Staff Reports 234, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  18. Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and the Size of Countries," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1995, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  19. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
  20. Raja Kali & Fabio Mendez & Javier Reyes, 2007. "Trade structure and economic growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 245-269.
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