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Growth, Expectations, and Tariffs

  • Seppo Honkapohja
  • Arja H. Turunen-Red
  • Alan D. Woodland

We study a many country endogenous growth model in which decisions about innovation and new investment are influenced by growth expectations. Adaptive learning dynamics determine country-specific short run transition paths. Countries differ in basic structural parameters and may impose tariffs on imports of capital goods. Numerical experiments illustrate adjustment dynamics that follow the use of tariffs. We show that countries that limit trade in capital goods can experience dynamic gains both in growth and utility and that such gains persist the longer the larger the structural advantages of the region that applies tariffs. Substantial differences in the levels of innovation, consumption, output, and utility can appear, and asymmetries in economic outcomes that were present before trade restrictions are made more severe.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2011/wp-cesifo-2011-04/cesifo1_wp3435.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3435.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3435
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  1. Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2005. "Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1499-1542 Elsevier.
  2. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  3. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2007. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," Discussion Papers 07-006, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  4. Walz, Uwe, 1997. "Growth and Deeper Regional Integration in a Three-County Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 492-507, November.
  5. Evans, Geroge W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Romer, Paul, 1998. "Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 495-515, June.
  6. Baldwin, Richard E & Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I P, 2001. " Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 5-37, March.
  7. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2005. "Great expectations and the end of the depression," Staff Reports 234, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2009. "Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 930-953, October.
  9. Michael E. Waugh, 2010. "International Trade and Income Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2093-2124, December.
  10. Sala-i-martin, X., 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Papers 734, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  11. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making," Working Papers 523, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  13. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 961-87, December.
  14. Honkapohja, Seppo & Turunen-Red, Arja, 1999. "Complementarity, Growth and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  16. Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2002. "R&D, Implementation and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," NBER Working Papers 9104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
  19. Antràs, Pol & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2008. "Organizations and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 6965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Raja Kali & Fabio Mendez & Javier Reyes, 2007. "Trade structure and economic growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 245-269.
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