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International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach

In: Recent Developments in Bayesian Econometrics and Their Applications

Author

Listed:
  • Jamie L. Cross

    (The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Business School)

  • Chenghan Hou

    (Hunan University)

  • Aubrey Poon

    (University of Kent)

Abstract

We propose a vector autoregression with common stochastic volatility in mean (VAR-CSVM) dynamics to estimate the transmission of domestic and international sources of macroeconomic uncertainty shocks in three small open economies (SOEs): Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. We find evidence that international uncertainty spillovers shape the macroeconomic conditions in all three SOEs; that domestic uncertainty shocks have idiosyncratic transmission mechanisms in each SOE; and that accounting for uncertainty within the VAR-CSVM improves point and density forecast accuracy compared to the nested VAR-CSV and homoscedastic VAR models.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2025. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Springer Books, in: Stepan Mazur & Pär Österholm (ed.), Recent Developments in Bayesian Econometrics and Their Applications, pages 89-115, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-032-00110-8_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-00110-8_6
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
    3. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 273-293, April.
    4. Juan M. Londono & Sai Ma & Beth Anne Wilson, 2021. "The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 1317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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