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Assessing International Commonality in Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Effects

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Listed:
  • Andrea Carriero
  • Todd E. Clark
  • Massimiliano Marcellino

Abstract

This paper uses a large vector autoregression to measure international macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects on major economies. We provide evidence of significant commonality in macroeconomic volatility, with one common factor driving strong comovement across economies and variables. We measure uncertainty and its effects with a large model in which the error volatilities feature a factor structure containing time-varying global components and idiosyncratic components. Global uncertainty contemporaneously affects both the levels and volatilities of the included variables. Our new estimates of international macroeconomic uncertainty indicate that surprise increases in uncertainty reduce output and stock prices, adversely affect labor market conditions, and in some economies lead to an easing of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2019. "Assessing International Commonality in Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Effects," Working Papers 18-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:180301
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201803r
    Note: First version March 2018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan & Matthieu Soupre, 2016. "Understanding the sources of macroeconomic uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 1531, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2018.
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    11. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Methods; Stochastic Volatility; identification; Endogeneity; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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