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The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach

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  • Vincent Brémond
  • Emmanuel Hache
  • Tovonony Razafindrabe

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. We explore the links between financial factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, international liquidity) and the oil price volatility. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation we demonstrate that the “historical coincidence” of oil and financial crises can be explained by the specificities of the relationship between these two commodities. The results of this paper are twofold. The US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of crude oil prices is not constant across time and remains negative from 1989: a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar triggers an increase of crude oil prices. This paper also demonstrates the contagion of financial commodities markets development upon the global economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 97-131, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:13:y:2016:i:1:p:97-131
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    2. César Castro & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Dynamic interactions between oil price and exchange rate," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2020. "On the Link between Oil Price and House Prices in the U.S.: Asymmetric Evidence from State Level Data," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1), pages 691-732.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; oil price; TVP-VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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