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Are asset price data informative about news shocks? A DSGE perspective

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  • Nikolay Iskrev

Abstract

Standard economic intuition suggests that asset prices are more sensitive to news than other economic aggregates. This has led many researchers to conclude that asset price data would be very useful for the estimation of business cycle models containing news shocks. This paper shows how to formally evaluate the information content of observed variables with respect to unobserved shocks in structural macroeconomic models. The proposed methodology is applied to two different real business cycle models with news shocks. The contribution of asset prices is found to be relatively small. The methodology is general and can be used to measure the informational importance of observables with respect to latent variables in DSGE models. Thus, it provides a framework for systematic treatment of such issues, which are usually discussed in an informal manner in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Iskrev, 2018. "Are asset price data informative about news shocks? A DSGE perspective," Working Papers w201802, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201802
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    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp201802.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.
    2. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
    3. Paul Beaudry & Patrick Fève & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2015. "When is Nonfundamentalness in VARs a Real Problem? An Application to News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 21466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nikolay, Iskrev, 2014. "Choosing the variables to estimate singular DSGE models: Comment," Dynare Working Papers 41, CEPREMAP.
    5. Xiao-Li Meng & Xianchao Xie, 2014. "I Got More Data, My Model is More Refined, but My Estimator is Getting Worse! Am I Just Dumb?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1-4), pages 218-250, June.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Are asset price data informative about news shocks? A DSGE perspective
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2018-08-22 19:26:17

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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