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Identifying News Shocks from SVARs

Listed author(s):
  • Fève, Patrick
  • Jidoud, Ahmat

This paper investigates the reliability of SVARs to identify the dynamic effects of news shocks. We show analytically that the dynamics implied by SVARs, using both long–run and short–run restrictions, are biased. However, the bias vanishes as long as news shocks account for most of the variability of the endogenous variable and the economy exhibits strong forward–looking behavior. Our simulation experiments confirm these findings and further suggest that the number of lags is a key ingredient for the success of the VAR setup. Furthermore, a simple correlation diagnostic test shows that news shocks identified using both restrictions are found to exhibit a correlation close to unity, provided that news shocks drive an overwhelming part of aggregate fluctuations.

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File URL: http://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/medias/doc/by/feve/wp_tse_287.pdf
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Paper provided by Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) in its series TSE Working Papers with number 12-287.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
Publication status: Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 34, n°4, décembre 2012, p. 909-932.
Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:25750
Contact details of provider: Phone: (+33) 5 61 12 86 23
Web page: http://www.tse-fr.eu/

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  1. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O, 2009. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7505, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
  3. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Enhancing Productivity (NBER-CEPR-TCER-Keio conference) National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Federico Ravenna, 2006. "Vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of DSGE models," Working Papers 0619, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  5. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Todd B. Walker & Eric M. Leeper & Susan S. Yang, 2012. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," IMF Working Papers 12/153, .
  8. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.
  9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Staff Report 364, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2006. "Assessing structural VARs," International Finance Discussion Papers 866, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2007. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 1-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 0922, European Central Bank.
  12. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "What’s News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2005. "The "News" View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 11496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2009. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0921, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  15. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  16. Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, 05.
  17. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2010. "Online Appendix to "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks"," Technical Appendices 09-221, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  18. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2011. "Non‐Fundamentalness in Structural Econometric Models: A Review," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 79(1), pages 16-47, 04.
  19. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
  20. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs," Working Papers 013, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
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