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Identifying News Shocks from SVARs

  • Fève, Patrick
  • Jidoud, Ahmat

This paper investigates the reliability of SVARs to identify the dynamic effects of news shocks. We show analytically that the dynamics implied by SVARs, using both long–run and short–run restrictions, are biased. However, the bias vanishes as long as news shocks account for most of the variability of the endogenous variable and the economy exhibits strong forward–looking behavior. Our simulation experiments confirm these findings and further suggest that the number of lags is a key ingredient for the success of the VAR setup. Furthermore, a simple correlation diagnostic test shows that news shocks identified using both restrictions are found to exhibit a correlation close to unity, provided that news shocks drive an overwhelming part of aggregate fluctuations.

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Paper provided by Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse in its series IDEI Working Papers with number 706.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 34, n. 4, December 2012, p. 909-932.
Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:25749
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  1. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2010. "Online Appendix to "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks"," Technical Appendices 09-221, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  2. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O, 2009. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7423, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
  4. Ravenna, Federico, 2007. "Vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2048-2064, October.
  5. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, 05.
  6. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The 'News' View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  8. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
  10. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.
  11. Morten O. Ravn & Karel Mertens, 2009. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 480, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2008. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  13. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs," Working Papers 013, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
  15. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 0922, European Central Bank.
  16. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "Are Structural VARs with Long-Run Restrictions Useful in Developing Business Cycle Theory?," NBER Working Papers 14430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "What’s News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2011. "Non‐Fundamentalness in Structural Econometric Models: A Review," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 79(1), pages 16-47, 04.
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