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News shocks, nonfundamentalness and volatility

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  • Offick, Sven
  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner

Abstract

Rational expectations models with news shocks may generate moving average representation that are nonfundamental. The nonfundamentalness typically arises from the lag polynomial associated with news shocks. This paper provides an exact solution formula for this special type of polynomial and discusses its main properties. In the presence of news shocks, the solutions may be used to convert a nonfundamental moving average representation into a fundamental one and vice versa. From the properties of these solutions, we conclude that the destabilizing effects of news shocks are exclusively due to its anticipation characteristic.

Suggested Citation

  • Offick, Sven & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2013. "News shocks, nonfundamentalness and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 17-19.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:119:y:2013:i:1:p:17-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.01.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Winkler, Roland C. & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2012. "On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 256-258.
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    5. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "VAR analysis, nonfundamental representations, blaschke matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 307-325, July.
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    7. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    8. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
    9. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 993-1074.
    2. Offick Sven & Wohltmann Hans-Werner, 2016. "Partially Anticipated Monetary Policy Shocks – Are They Stabilizing or Destabilizing?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(1), pages 95-127, February.
    3. Offick, Sven & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Volatility effects of news shocks in New Keynesian models with optimal monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 78-82.
    4. Offick, Sven & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2015. "Volatility effects of news shocks in (B)RE models with optimal monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 2015-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    News shock; Nonfundamentalness; Cyclotomic polynomial;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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