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The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?

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  • Kevin L. Kliesen

Abstract

The 2001 recession was unique in several respects. For instance, the peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product was one of the smallest on record and its duration was slightly shorter than average. This article examines some of the other unique features of the 2001 recession compared with the “average” post-World War II recession. The author also shows that forecasters were surprised by the onset of the recession, perhaps because of incomplete data available to them in real time. Finally, the article examines the errors from a well-known macroeconomic forecast and finds that forecasters were surprised by the declines in real business and household fixed investment, as well as real net exports, before the March 2001 business cycle peak.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin L. Kliesen, 2003. "The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-38.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2003:i:sep:p:23-38:n:v.85no.5
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    File URL: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/03/09/Kliesen.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles? an overview," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 3-24.
    2. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61.
    3. Boldin, Michael D, 1994. "Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 97-131, January.
    4. Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 1995. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries? Results for the G-7 countries," Working Papers 9509, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2002. "Speculative Growth," NBER Working Papers 9381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Bob & Boo, Yee Ling & Ee, Mong Shan & Chen, Cindy, 2013. "A re-examination of firm's attributes and share returns: Evidence from the Chinese A-shares market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 174-181.
    2. Karnizova Lilia, 2012. "News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-50, June.
    3. Pearce II, John A. & Michael, Steven C., 2006. "Strategies to prevent economic recessions from causing business failure," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 201-209.
    4. Pablo Mejía-Reyes & Reyna Vergara-González, 2015. "Are more severe recessions followed by stronger recoveries? Evidence from the Mexican states employment," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1223, European Regional Science Association.

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