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Estimates of Real Economic Activity in Switzerland, 1885-1930


  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Gerlach-Kristen, Petra


This Paper uses annual data spanning 1870 to 1930 on a set of variables correlated with business conditions to construct an index of real economic activity in Switzerland. We extract an estimate of the common component of the data series using principal components analysis and the unobservable variables approach proposed by Stock and Watson (1989, 1991). The resulting index is similar to, but displays more variation over time than, that constructed by Andrist, Anderson and Williams (2000).

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2002. "Estimates of Real Economic Activity in Switzerland, 1885-1930," CEPR Discussion Papers 3427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3427

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Germany; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 04/340, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item


    coincident indicator; principal componants; swiss economic history;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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