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Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time- frequency analysis of growth cycles in the eurozone

Author

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  • Patrick Crowley

    (Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi)

  • Jim Lee

    (Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi)

Abstract

This article analyses the frequency components of European business cycles using real GDP by employing multiresolution decomposition (MRD) with the use of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT). Static wavelet variance and correlation analysis is performed, and phasing is studied using co-correlation with the eurozone by scale. Lastly dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models are used to obtain dynamic correlation estimates by scale against the EU to evaluate synchronicity of cycles through time. The general …ndings are that eurozone members fall into one of three categories: i) high static and dynamic correlations at all frequency cycles (e.g. France, Belgium, Germany), ii) low static and dynamic correlations, with little sign of convergence occurring (e.g. Greece), and iii) low static correlation but convergent dynamic correlations (e.g. Finland and Ireland)

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Crowley & Jim Lee, 2005. "Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time- frequency analysis of growth cycles in the eurozone," Macroeconomics 0503015, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0503015
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 76
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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0503/0503015.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "International business cycles: What are the facts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 257-276, March.
    2. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
    3. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    4. Carlo Altavilla, 2004. "Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 869-896, December.
    5. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
    6. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
    9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    10. A'Hearn, Brian & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "More international evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 321-346, April.
    11. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Crowley, Patrick M., 2008. "One money, several cycles? : evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
    2. Crowley, Patrick M., 2010. "Long cycles in growth : explorations using new frequency domain techniques with US data," Research Discussion Papers 6/2010, Bank of Finland.
    3. Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2014. "Timescale-dependent stock market comovement: BRICs vs. developed markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 90-103.
    4. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread under the Veil of Time," Research Papers in Economics 2006:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:wut:journl:v:1:y:2017:p:57-75:id:1269 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:agr:journl:v:4(613):y:2017:i:4(613):p:75-88 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; growth cycles; European Union; multiresolution analysis; wavelets; co-correlation; dynamic correlation.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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