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Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?

Listed author(s):
  • CARLO ALTAVILLA

The article analyses alternative approaches for dating the business cycles of a set of European monetary union (EMU) member states. First, the framework for analysing cyclical behaviour in economic activity is presented. Second, the dating algorithm is applied to both the classical cycle and the growth cycle in order to recover stylized facts of the business cycle in Europe. Third, the article utilizes different econometric techniques to evaluate the synchronicity of national cycles and the euro area aggregate cycle, and compare the results with that of the USA. A convergence analysis is also employed. Finally, a multivariate extension of the Hamilton-Markov switching model is constructed to analyse the euro area business cycle. The results suggest that, although during the main recessionary periods the euro area economies shared a similar output dynamic, some differences still remain in the size and timing of the business cycle features. The results also suggest that adhesion to the new currency area is likely to lead to stronger synchronization of EMU members' business cycles. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2004.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Common Market Studies.

Volume (Year): 42 (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 869-896

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:42:y:2004:i:5:p:869-896
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  1. Beyer, Andreas & Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F, 2001. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages 102-121, February.
  2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "Rejoinder to James Hamilton," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1695-1698, July.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  4. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
  5. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  6. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, BenoƮt, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
  7. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "Classical and modern business cycle measurement: The European case," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.
  8. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 0052, European Central Bank.
  9. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  10. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Olaf Sleijpen, 2002. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 23-42, 03.
  12. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
  13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
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