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A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector

  • Kajal Lahiri
  • Wenxiong Yao

This paper studies the business cycle features of the transportation sector using dynamic factor models. The transportation reference cycles peak ahead of the economic cycles, but lag by a few months at troughs. The asymmetric relationship between these two suggests the usefulness of transportation in monitoring business cycles.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 595-600

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:11:y:2004:i:10:p:595-600
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  1. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
  2. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Geographical and Sectoral Shocks in the U.S. Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  4. Feenberg, Daniel & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1997. "Improving the Accessibility of the NBER's Historical Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 293-99, July.
  5. Brad R Humphreys & Louis J Maccini & Scott Schuh, 1997. "Input and Output Inventories," Economics Working Paper Archive 391, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  6. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  7. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "The predictive power of an experimental transportation output index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 149-152.
  8. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  9. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, March.
  10. Robert J. Gordon, 1992. "Productivity in the Transportation Sector," NBER Chapters, in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 371-427 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1998. "Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, And Tests Of Duration Dependence Based On A Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 188-201, May.
  12. Layton, Allan P & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1989. "Leading Indicators for the Service Sector," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 379-86, July.
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