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Productivity in the Transportation Sector

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  • Robert J. Gordon

Abstract

This is a comprehensive study of measurement and substantive issues that arise in determining the rate of multi factor productivity (MFP) growth in the transportation industry over the postwar period, 1948-87. Official data on output and employment are provided by two government agencies and conflict markedly for railroads, airlines, and trucking. This paper identifies the source of the conflicts and selects the best of the government indexes for further study, It concludes that improved data reduce the magnitude of the post-1973 productivity slowdown in transportation MFP growth from a previously reported 2.5 percent per annum to just 0.5 percent. The effect of deregulation has been mixed; MFP growth accelerated markedly for railroads when 1978-87 is compared to the pre-1978 period, but slowed sharply for airlines and trucking. New results on output quality are provided for airlines, particularly for the period of deregulation. Contrary to the standard view, deregulation has not substituted circuitous routings through hubs for nonstop flights available previously; instead the establishment of new hubs has greatly increased the number of nonstop routings available, and remarkably few nonstop routes have been discontinued. An estimate is provided of the value of time saved by the improved routings, and of the offsetting time cost of extended scheduled flight times resulting from increased congestion. Such estimates of the value of time are swamped by the huge contribution to welfare provided by the manufacturers of aircraft and engines; the time saving from the "invention of air travel" for 1989 is valued at 400 percent of domestic airline revenue and 3.5 percent of GNP. Alternative measures of capital input, based on new quality-adjusted equipment deflators, are provided for airlines, railroads, and trucking. These uniformly increase faster in the earlier postwar years than in the last decade and consequently imply a smaller decline in MFP growth than in official data sources. However, new estimates of the input of government expenditures on airports, air traffic control, and highways, do not change appreciably the pattern of postwar MFP growth in transportation.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Gordon, 1991. "Productivity in the Transportation Sector," NBER Working Papers 3815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3815
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    1. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dionne, Georges & Gagné, Robert, 1993. "Rendements d’échelle, progrès technique et croissance de la productivité dans les industries québécoise et ontarienne de transport par camion, 1981-1988," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 69(3), pages 139-159, septembre.
    3. Martin Neil Baily, 1993. "Competition, Regulation, and Efficiency in Service Industries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2 Microec), pages 71-159.
    4. Georges Dionne & Robert Gagné, 1996. "Progrès technique et croissance de la productivité : estimations sur un panel incomplet de firmes ayant des qualités de production différentes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 126(5), pages 63-76.
    5. Harchaoui, Tarek M., 2012. "A Quarter of a Century Progress Report on the Services Sector Productivity Statistics. A Europe-United States Perspective," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-125, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    6. Hussain, Anwar & Maki, Wilbur R. & Olson, Douglas C. & Braslau, David, 1993. "The Changing Structure Of The Transportation Sector - An Input-Output Analysis," Staff Papers 13952, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    7. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    8. Margaret Peteraf & Randal Reed, 2008. "Regulatory reform and managerial choice: an analysis of the cost savings from airline deregulation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2-3), pages 99-116.
    9. A. Kerem Cosar & Latchezar Popov & Sophie Osotimehin, 2019. "Regional and Aggregate Implications of Transportation Costs and Tradability of Services," 2019 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Robert Gordon, 1995. "Problems in the Measurement and Performance of Service-Sector Productivity in the United States," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Palle Andersen & Jacqueline Dwyer & David Gruen (ed.),Productivity and Growth, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 595-600.
    12. Kajal Lahiri, Wenxiong Yao, and Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    13. Rich, Daniel P., 2004. "6. Productivity, Technical Change And Labor Relations In Transportation Industries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 109-135, January.
    14. Severin Borenstein, 1992. "The Evolution of U.S. Airline Competition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 45-73, Spring.
    15. Galina Ševčenko-Kozlovska & Kristina Čižiūnienė, 2022. "The Impact of Economic Sustainability in the Transport Sector on GDP of Neighbouring Countries: Following the Example of the Baltic States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.
    16. Roger W. Ferguson & William L. Wascher, 2004. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Lessons from Past Productivity Booms," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    17. Laurent Kenigswald, 1995. "Transport aérien : bilan de l'expérience américaine de libéralisation et leçon pour l'Europe," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 119(3), pages 73-86.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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