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Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector

  • Kajal Lahiri
  • Herman O. Stekler
  • Wenxiong Yao
  • Peg Young

We develop a monthly output index of the U.S. Transportation sector over 1980:1-2002:4 covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indexes for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index matches very well with the annual transportation output figures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The strong cyclical movements in the transportation output appear to be more synchronized with the growth slowdowns rather than full-fledged recessions of the U.S. economy. The index has led the turning points of the six NBER-defined growth cycles over the period with an average lead-time of 6 months at peaks and 5 months at troughs.

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Paper provided by University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 03-12.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:03-12
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
Phone: (518) 442-4735
Fax: (518) 442-4736

Order Information: Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
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  1. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2000. "The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make it More Timely," Economics Program Working Papers 00-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1992. "Productivity in the Transportation Sector," NBER Chapters, in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 371-427 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
  4. Zvi Griliches, 1992. "Output Measurement in the Service Sectors," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gril92-1, July.
  5. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
  6. Carol Corrado & Charles Gilbert & Richard Raddock, 1997. "Industrial production and capacity utilization: historical revision and recent developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 67-92.
  7. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Geographical and Sectoral Shocks in the U.S. Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521356923 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, March.
  10. Layton, Allan P & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1989. "Leading Indicators for the Service Sector," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 379-86, July.
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