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New Composite Indicators for Bulgarian Business Cycle

Author

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  • Roumen Vesselinov

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Abstract

The paper presents the creation of a new composite coincident monthly indicator for Bulgaria. The Bry-Boschan method is used to determine the turning points for the Bulgarian business cycle for the 2000-2011 period. A new composite leading indicator is also created and tested. The paper finds that the latest recession for Bulgaria had started in June 2007 and was still continuing by March 2011. The national business cycle was lagging the Euro Area cycle before 2007 and was early after that.

Suggested Citation

  • Roumen Vesselinov, 2012. "New Composite Indicators for Bulgarian Business Cycle," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 5(2), pages 101-111, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:5:y:2012:i:2:p:101-111
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    File URL: http://ijbesar.teiemt.gr/docs/volume5_issue2/composite_indicators.pdf
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    File URL: http://ijbesar.teiemt.gr/volume5_issue2.php
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Karras, 2013. "Inflation and the Great Moderation: Evidence from a Large Panel Data Set," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(3), pages 7-19, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; coincident; leading; indicator;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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