The predictive power of an experimental transportation output index
A monthly output index for the US Transportation sector over January 1979-June 2003 is reported covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indexes for freight and passenger are also constructed. The strong cyclical movements observed in the transportation output appear to be well synchronized with the NBER-defined recessions and growth slowdowns of the US economy. The series reflects the profound impact of 9/11 on the transportation sector, especially on the airlines. By December 2002 it has reached its historical peak. Given the observed relationship of the transportation output with the economy, the recent upward trend in the freight transportation strongly suggests that both the sector and the overall economy have recovered from their latest slump.
Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEL20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006.
"Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April.
- Brad R Humphreys & Louis J Maccini & Scott Schuh, 1997. "Input and Output Inventories," Economics Working Paper Archive 391, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Brad R Humphreys & Louis J Maccini & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Input and Output Inventories," Economics Working Paper Archive 426, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Brad R. Humphreys & Louis J. Maccini & Scott Schuh, 1997. "Input and output inventories," Working Papers 97-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)