IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sos/sosjrn/190208.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship Between Saving, Profit Rates and Business CyclesAbstract:There are different approaches of economics schools on the sources, causes and determinants of business cycles. These approaches have been shaped in the Classical and Keynesian currents. The Global Financial Crisis that lived in 2008 laid the groundwork for the revival of the literature on business cycles. By using the panel data methods for the period between 1990 and 2013 in OECD economies, this study has investigated the effects of private sector profit and savings rates playing an important role in creating the cyclical fluctuations. The findings show that profit and the lagged saving rates have positive effect on the cyclical fluctuations. In other words, an increase in profit and savings rates causes the upward deviations from the trend level. On the other hand, the increases in the variables used in the analysis, like commercial and financial openness, total factor productivity, high-tech exports, domestic credit volume, M2 money supply, real exchange rate and government spendings, give rise to upward deviations tendency to boom) from the trend level while interest, inflation and unemployment rates have a reverse situation (tendency to recession).Classification-JEL:D20, E32, C23

Author

Listed:
  • Efe Can KILINÇ
  • Cafer Necat BERBEROĞLU

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Efe Can KILINÇ & Cafer Necat BERBEROĞLU, 2019. "The Relationship Between Saving, Profit Rates and Business CyclesAbstract:There are different approaches of economics schools on the sources, causes and determinants of business cycles. These approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:190208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dergipark.gov.tr/download/article-file/691352
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Aytul Ganioglu & Cihan Yalcin, 2015. "Domestic Savings-Investment Gap and Growth : A Cross-Country Panel Study," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(1), pages 39-63.
    4. Thomas I. Palley, 2014. "Rethinking wage vs. profit-led growth theory with implications for policy analysis," IMK Working Paper 141-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    6. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Precautionary Saving Over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 135-164, February.
    7. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    8. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    9. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    10. Coad, Alex, 2007. "Testing the principle of `growth of the fitter': The relationship between profits and firm growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 370-386, September.
    11. Joan Robinson, 1979. "The Generalisation of the General Theory and other Essays," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-1-349-16188-1, December.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    13. Lane, Philip R. & Tornell, Aaron, 1998. "Why aren't savings rates in Latin America procyclical?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 185-199, October.
    14. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    15. Denis Lawrence & W. Diewert & Kevin Fox, 2006. "The contributions of productivity, price changes and firm size to profitability," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-13, August.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    17. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    18. Tapia, Jose, 2015. "Profits encourage investment, investment dampens profits, government spending does not prime the pump — A DAG investigation of business-cycle dynamics," MPRA Paper 64985, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2015.
    19. Han, Chirok & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2010. "Gmm Estimation For Dynamic Panels With Fixed Effects And Strong Instruments At Unity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 119-151, February.
    20. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 375-393, December.
    21. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
    22. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, March.
    23. Machin, Stephen & Van Reenen, John, 1993. "Profit Margins and the Business Cycle: Evidence from UK Manufacturing Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 29-50, March.
    24. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Daniel Titelman & Pablo Carvallo, 2014. "Weak Expansions: A Distinctive Feature of the Business Cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2014(3), pages 1-69, February.
    25. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    26. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    27. Giorgio Calzolari & Laura Magazzini, 2014. "Improving GMM efficiency in dynamic models for panel data with mean stationarity," Working Papers 12/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    28. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
    29. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    30. Adema, Yvonne & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2015. "Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 214-233.
    31. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    32. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
    33. Jean-Philippe Cotis & Jonathan Coppel, 2005. "Business Cycle Dynamics in OECD Countries: Evidence, Causes and Policy Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    34. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Jonathan Kearns & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2015. "(Why) Is investment weak?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    35. Valle e Azevedo, Joao & Koopman, Siem Jan & Rua, Antonio, 2006. "Tracking the Business Cycle of the Euro Area: A Multivariate Model-Based Bandpass Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 278-290, July.
    36. Marcos Lima & Marcelo Resende, 2004. "Profit margins and business cycles in the Brazilian industry: a panel data study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 923-930.
    37. Mario Pianta & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2008. "Innovations, wages, and profits," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 101-123, September.
    38. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/54k1p7hdq38odb1k39k1rdm8di is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Przybyla, Marcin & Roma, Moreno, 2005. "Does product market competition reduce inflation? Evidence from EU countries and sectors," Working Paper Series 453, European Central Bank.
    40. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    41. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    42. Gerdie Everaert, 2013. "Orthogonal to backward mean transformation for dynamic panel data models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(2), pages 179-221, June.
    43. Joan Robinson, 1979. "The Generalisation of the General Theory," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Generalisation of the General Theory and other Essays, edition 0, pages 1-76, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Potrafke, Niklas, 2010. "The growth of public health expenditures in OECD countries: Do government ideology and electoral motives matter?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 797-810, December.
    2. Tapia, Jose, 2015. "Profits encourage investment, investment dampens profits, government spending does not prime the pump — A DAG investigation of business-cycle dynamics," MPRA Paper 64698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
    4. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Nguyen Thanh Binh & Su Dinh Thanh & Christophe Schinckus, 2020. "Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 159-172.
    5. Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere & Reneé van Eyden & Francis M Kemegue, 2014. "Remittances and the Dutch Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Approach," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(3), September.
    6. Andriansyah Andriansyah & George Messinis, 2014. "Equity Markets and Economic Development: Does the Primary Market Matter?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90, pages 127-141, June.
    7. Goya, Daniel, 2020. "The exchange rate and export variety: A cross-country analysis with long panel estimators," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 649-665.
    8. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012. "Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.
    9. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Subsidizing power," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(3), pages 300-321, July.
    10. Kallal, Sami & Guetat, Imène, 2020. "Fiscal stance, election year and 2007 crisis, evidence from OECD countries (1980–2017)," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    11. Daniel Goya, 2014. "The Multiple Impacts of the Exchange Rate on Export Diversification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1436, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Kostakis, Ioannis & Lolos, Sarantis & Sardianou, Eleni, 2021. "Residential natural gas demand: Assessing the evidence from Greece using pseudo-panels, 2012–2019," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    13. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "An analysis of involuntary excess reserves, monetary policy and risk-taking behaviour of Chinese Banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 63-72.
    14. Awad, Atif & Albaity, Mohamed, 2022. "ICT and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Transmission channels and effects," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(8).
    15. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2013. "The impact of excess reserves beyond precautionary levels on Bank Lending Channels in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 358-377.
    16. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Udomsak Wongchoti & Su Dinh Thanh, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for insurance development? Evidence from 16 OECD countries," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(4), pages 614-648, October.
    17. KAFANDO, Namalguebzanga, 2014. "L'industrialisation de l'Afrique: l'importance des facteurs structurels et du régime de change [The industrialization of Africa: the importance of structural factors and exchange rate regime]," MPRA Paper 68736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Christian Aßmann & Marcel Preising, 2020. "Bayesian estimation and model comparison for linear dynamic panel models with missing values," Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Australian Statistical Publishing Association Inc., vol. 62(4), pages 536-557, December.
    19. Ajanaku, B.A. & Collins, A.R., 2021. "Economic growth and deforestation in African countries: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis applicable?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Maurice J.G. Bun & Sarafidis, V., 2013. "Dynamic Panel Data Models," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 13-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:190208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aysen Sivrikaya (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sosyoekonomijournal.org/home.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.