A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy â€“ Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System
Since 1990 the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses a leading indicator in preparing short-term forecasts for the Dutch economy. This paper describes some recent methodological innovations as well as the current structure and empirical results of the revised CPB leading indicator. Special attention is paid to the role and significance of IFO data. The structure of the CPB leading indicator is tailored to its use as a supplement to model-based projections, and thus has a unique character in several respects. The system of the CPB leading indicator is composed of ten separate composite indicators, seven for expenditure categories (â€˜demandâ€™) and three for the main production sectors (â€˜supplyâ€™). This system approach has important advantages over the usual structure, in which the basis series are directly linked to a single reference series. The revised system, which uses 25 different basic series, performs quite well in describing the economic cycle of GDP, in indicating the upturns and downturns, and in telling the story behind the business cycle.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- A.H.J. den Reijer, 2002. "International Business Cycle Indicators, Measurement and Forecasting," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 689, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006.
"Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
- McGuckin, Robert H. & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Zarnowitz, Victor, 2007.
"A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 110-120, January.
- Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2003. "A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 03-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
- Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
- Jagjit S. Chadha & Charles Nolan, 2002. "A Long View of the UK Business Cycle," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182(1), pages 72-89, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.