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Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters

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  • Kosei Fukuda

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  • Kosei Fukuda, 2009. "Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 243-267, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:36:y:2009:i:2:p:243-267
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-008-0194-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    5. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    6. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    7. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    8. Stekler, H O, 1972. "An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 724-729, September.
    9. Schnader, M H & Stekler, H O, 1990. "Evaluating Predictions of Change," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 99-107, January.
    10. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April.
    11. Gopal Naik & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1986. "A Note on Qualitative Forecast Evaluation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(3), pages 721-726.
    12. Ashiya, Masahiro & Doi, Takero, 2001. "Herd behavior of Japanese economists," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 343-346, November.
    13. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, March.
    14. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, March.
    15. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, December.
    17. H. O. Stekler, 1968. "An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41, pages 329-329.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiaxing You & Ling Lin & Juanjuan Huang & Min Xiao, 2020. "When is cash king? International evidence on the value of cash across the business cycle," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1101-1131, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contingency table; Growth cycle; Professional forecaster; Real-time data; Turning point; E32; E37;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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