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Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points

  • Rolando Pelàez

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-006-0083-4
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    Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (April)
    Pages: 239-246

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:32:y:2007:i:1:p:239-246
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    1. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 0027, European Central Bank.
    2. Rendigs Fels & C. Elton Hinshaw, 1968. "Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fels68-1, October.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David Ahlers & Josef Lakonishok, 1983. "A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(10), pages 1113-1125, October.
    5. H. O. Stekler, 1968. "An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41, pages 329.
    6. Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    7. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
    8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
    9. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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