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A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • David Ahlers

    (Cornell University)

  • Josef Lakonishok

    (Tei-Aviv University)

Abstract

This study examines the ability of economists to forecast ten major economic series. The data for this study were provided by J. A. Livingston of the Philadelphia Inquirer, who since 1947 has collected forecasts for the upcoming 6 and 12 months. The results reveal that, in general, for the period from 1947 through 1978, the economists in Livingston's sample did not produce efficient forecasts and were not able to outperform simple statistical models. It should be noted, however, that a substantial and consistent improvement in forecasting performance by economists in Livingston's sample did occur over this same period. These results contain important information for managers who use macro-economic consensus forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • David Ahlers & Josef Lakonishok, 1983. "A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(10), pages 1113-1125, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:29:y:1983:i:10:p:1113-1125
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.29.10.1113
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    Cited by:

    1. KENT D. DANIEL & David Hirshleifer & AVANIDHAR SUBRAHMANYAM, 2004. "A Theory of Overconfidence, Self-Attribution, and Security Market Under- and Over-reactions," Finance 0412006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sandrine Lardic & Auguste Mpacko Priso, 1999. "Une comparaison des prévisions des experts à celles issues des modèles B VAR," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 161-180.
    3. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April.
    4. Russell Sobel & S. Travis Raines, 2003. "An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 371-385.

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