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Time-varying mixed frequency forecasting: A real-time experiment

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Abstract

This paper tests the usefulness of time-varying parameters when forecasting with mixed-frequency data. For this we compare the forecast performance of bridge equations and unrestriced MIDAS models with constant and time-varying parameters. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise with US real-time data shows that the use of time-varying parameters does not improve forecasts significantly over all vintages. However, since the Great Recession, forecast errors are smaller when forecasting with bridge equations due to the ability of time-varying parameters to incorporate gradual structural changes faster.

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  • Stefan Neuwirth, 2017. "Time-varying mixed frequency forecasting: A real-time experiment," KOF Working papers 17-430, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:17-430
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000164847
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