IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v38y2010i2p325-353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Housing Supply, Land Costs and Price Adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Arthur Grimes
  • Andrew Aitken

Abstract

We analyze relationships between housing supply elasticities, land costs and house price dynamics, contributing three main insights. First, higher housing supply elasticities help contain short-run price spikes following demand shocks. Second, land price dynamics influence this relationship; supply responses are lessened and house price spikes are exacerbated as land prices increase. Third, we estimate a system of regional equations modeling housing supply using a Tobin's-"q" specification (incorporating construction and land costs) and show that regional price dynamics are a function of the region's supply elasticity. Copyright (c) 2010 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2010. "Housing Supply, Land Costs and Price Adjustment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 325-353.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:38:y:2010:i:2:p:325-353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00269.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Albert Saiz, 2008. "On Local Housing Supply Elasticity," ERES eres2008_241, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Moon, Hyungsik R. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2000. "Estimation Of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 927-997, December.
    5. Meen, Geoffrey, 2000. "Housing Cycles and Efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-140, May.
    6. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October.
    7. Tsoukis, Christopher & Westaway, Peter, 1994. "A forward looking model of housing construction in the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 266-279, April.
    8. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2004. "GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 467-522, March.
    9. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    10. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2004. "What's the Beef with House Prices? Economic Shocks and Local Housing Markets," Working Papers 04_08, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    11. Dietz, Robert D. & Haurin, Donald R., 2003. "The social and private micro-level consequences of homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 401-450, November.
    12. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Residential Construction: Using the Urban Growth Model to Estimate Housing Supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 85-109, July.
    13. Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 1996. "Regional housing supply and credit constraints," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 39-51.
    14. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    15. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    16. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
    17. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, March.
    18. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    19. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    20. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1567-1606.
    21. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2008-241 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. DiPasquale, Denise, 1999. "Why Don't We Know More about Housing Supply?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 9-23, January.
    23. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken & Suzi Kerr, 2004. "House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry," Urban/Regional 0408001, EconWPA.
    24. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
    25. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Sun, Jian, 2006. "A simple alternative house price index method," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-97, March.
    26. Glaeser, Edward L & Gyourko, Joseph & Saks, Raven, 2005. "Why Is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in Housing Prices," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 331-369, October.
    27. Andrew Coleman, 2007. "Credit constraints and housing markets in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    28. Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1980. "On the "q" Theory of Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 739-743, September.
    29. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2003. "The impact of building restrictions on housing affordability," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 21-39.
    30. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
    31. Blackley, Dixie M, 1999. "The Long-Run Elasticity of New Housing Supply in the United States: Empirical Evidence for 1950 to 1994," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 25-42, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arthur Grimes & Sean Hyland, 2013. "Housing Market Dynamics and the GFC: The Complex Dynamics of a Credit Shock," Working Papers 13_12, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Arthur Grimes & Sean Hyland & Andrew Coleman & James Kerr & Alex Collier, 2013. "A New Zealand Regional Housing Model," Working Papers 13_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    3. Oliver W. Lerbs, 2014. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-210, September.
    4. Arthur Grimes & Mark Holmes, 2010. "New Zealand Housing Markets: Just a Bit-Player in the A-League?," Working Papers 10_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    5. Oliver Lerbs, "undated". "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," Working Papers 201283, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    6. Krzysztof Olszewski & Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Laszek & Robert Leszczynski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2016. "On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Lerbs, Oliver W., 2012. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," CAWM Discussion Papers 57, University of Münster, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM).
    8. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    9. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Arthur Grimes & Mark Holmes, 2016. "Two countries, sixteen cities, five thousand kilometres: How many housing markets?," ERSA conference papers ersa16p49, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2015. "Elasticidad precio de la oferta inmobiliaria en el Gran Santiago
      [Housing supply elasticity in Greater Santiago]
      ," MPRA Paper 65012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Shi, Song & Jou, Jyh-Bang & Tripe, David, 2014. "Can interest rates really control house prices? Effectiveness and implications for macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-28.
    12. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato & Zhang, Sumei, 2011. "Land leverage and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 134-144, March.
    13. Keith Ihlanfeldt & Tom Mayock, 2014. "Housing Bubbles and Busts: The Role of Supply Elasticity," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 79-99.
    14. Timothy Jones & Dean Gatzlaff & G. Stacy Sirmans, 2016. "Housing Market Dynamics: Disequilibrium, Mortgage Default, and Reverse Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 269-281, October.
    15. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach," BERG Working Paper Series 99, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    16. Rong, Zhao & Wang, Wenchun & Gong, Qiang, 2016. "Housing price appreciation, investment opportunity, and firm innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-58.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:38:y:2010:i:2:p:325-353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.