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Local Economic Conditions and the Nature of New Housing Supply

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  • Christian A. L. Hilber
  • Jan Rouwendal
  • Wouter Vermeulen

Abstract

We present a modified open monocentric city model that assumes that land is available for conversion into new housing throughout the city. The model predicts that positive local income shocks (i) increase the city's share of multi-family housing in new construction and (ii) lead to the construction of smaller units. We exploit the metro area samples of the American Housing Survey from 1984 to 2004 and find support for both predictions. We confirm that the adjustment process is driven by migration and is hindered by strict local land use control. Our findings imply that tight regulation may hamper metro area level labor market adjustment to positive economic shocks not only through limits on the quantity of newly supplied units but also by constraining their type to single-family houses and larger units that may be less suitable for would-be-migrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian A. L. Hilber & Jan Rouwendal & Wouter Vermeulen, 2014. "Local Economic Conditions and the Nature of New Housing Supply," SERC Discussion Papers 0164, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0164
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    Cited by:

    1. Gyourko, Joseph & Molloy, Raven, 2015. "Regulation and Housing Supply," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1289-1337, Elsevier.
    2. Michael Ball, 2008. "UK Planning Controls and the Market Responsiveness of Housing Supply," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-13, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    3. N. K. Kurichev & E. K. Kuricheva, 2018. "Regional Differentiation of Buyers’ Activity in the Primary Housing Market of the Moscow Agglomeration," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 322-333, October.
    4. Molloy, Raven, 2020. "The effect of housing supply regulation on housing affordability: A review," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Nikolay Kurichev & Ekaterina Kuricheva, 2020. "Interregional migration, the housing market, and a spatial shift in the metro area: Interrelationships in the case study of Moscow," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 689-703, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local economic conditions; open monocentric city model; land conversion; housing supply; housing type; housing consumption; land use regulation; migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations

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