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Gentrification and Neighborhood Housing Cycles: Will America's Future Downtowns be Rich?

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  • Jan K. Brueckner
  • Stuart S. Rosenthal

Abstract

This paper identifies a new factor, the age of the housing stock, that affects where high- and low-income neighborhoods are located in U.S. cities. High-income households, driven by a high demand for housing services, will tend to locate in areas of the city where the housing stock is relatively young. Because cities develop and redevelop from the center outward over time, the location of these neighborhoods varies over the city’s history. The model predicts a suburban location for the rich in an initial period, when young dwellings are found only in the suburbs, while predicting eventual gentrification once central redevelopment creates a young downtown housing stock. Empirical work indicates that if the influence of spatial variation in dwelling ages were eliminated, longstanding central city/suburban disparities in neighborhood economic status would be reduced by up to 50 percent. Model estimates further predict that between 2000 and 2020, central-city/suburban differences in economic status will widen somewhat in smaller cities but narrow sharply in the largest American cities as they become more gentrified.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan K. Brueckner & Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2005. "Gentrification and Neighborhood Housing Cycles: Will America's Future Downtowns be Rich?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1579, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1579
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brueckner, Jan K., 1980. "Residential succession and land-use dynamics in a vintage model of urban housing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 225-240, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    spatial expansion of cities; housing cycles; urban expansion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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