IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/113922.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Micro-geographic property price and rent indices

Author

Listed:
  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.
  • Heblich, Stephan
  • Seidel, Tobias

Abstract

We develop a programming algorithm that predicts a balanced-panel mix-adjusted house price index for arbitrary spatial units from repeated cross-sections of geocoded micro data. The algorithm combines parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques to provide a tight local fit where the underlying micro data are abundant and reliable extrapolations where data are sparse. To illustrate the functionality, we generate a panel of German property prices and rents that is unprecedented in its spatial coverage and detail. This novel data set uncovers a battery of stylized facts that motivate further research, e.g. on the density bias of price-to-rent ratios in levels and trends, within and between cities. Our method lends itself to the creation of comparable neighborhood-level qualified price and rent indices for residential and commercial property.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Heblich, Stephan & Seidel, Tobias, 2021. "Micro-geographic property price and rent indices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113922, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113922
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/113922/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephan Heblich & Stephen J Redding & Daniel M Sturm, 2020. "The Making of the Modern Metropolis: Evidence from London," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 2059-2133.
    2. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2018. "Home away from home? Foreign demand and London house prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 532-555.
    3. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    4. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    5. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Wolfgang Maennig & Felix J. Richter, 2017. "Urban renewal after the Berlin Wall: a place-based policy evaluation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 129-156.
    6. Jim Clayton, 1996. "Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 441-470, December.
    7. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon, 2019. "The Costs of Agglomeration: House and Land Prices in French Cities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1556-1589.
    8. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    9. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2019. "The economic effects of density: A synthesis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 93-107.
    10. Chen, Jie & Chen, Yu & Hill, Robert J. & Hu, Pei, 2022. "The user cost of housing and the price-rent ratio in Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Fabian Bald & Duncan Roth & Tobias Seidel, 2020. "Quality of life in a dynamic spatial model," CEP Discussion Papers dp1736, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Braun, Stefanie & Lee, Gabriel S., 2021. "The prices of residential land in German counties," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    14. Rebecca Diamond & Tim McQuade & Franklin Qian, 2019. "The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3365-3394, September.
    15. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    16. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2014. "Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1085-1140.
    17. Dorinth W. Dijk & David M. Geltner & Alex M. Minne, 2022. "The Dynamics of Liquidity in Commercial Property Markets: Revisiting Supply and Demand Indexes in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 327-360, April.
    18. de Bellefon, Marie-Pierre & Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent & Gorin, Clément, 2021. "Delineating urban areas using building density," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    19. Jonathan Halket & Lars Nesheim & Florian Oswald, 2020. "The Housing Stock, Housing Prices, And User Costs: The Roles Of Location, Structure, And Unobserved Quality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1777-1814, November.
    20. Marc Francke, 2010. "Repeat Sales Index for Thin Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 24-52, July.
    21. David H. Autor & Christopher J. Palmer & Parag A. Pathak, 2014. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from the End of Rent Control in Cambridge, Massachusetts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 661-717.
    22. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    23. Stephanie Riegg Cellini & Fernando Ferreira & Jesse Rothstein, 2010. "The Value of School Facility Investments: Evidence from a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity Design," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 215-261.
    24. Han, Lu & Strange, William C., 2016. "What is the role of the asking price for a house?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 115-130.
    25. Jens Kolbe & Rainer Schulz & Martin Wersing & Axel Werwatz, 2015. "Identifying Berlin’s land value map using adaptive weights smoothing," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 767-790, September.
    26. Brueckner, Jan K. & Thisse, Jacques-Francois & Zenou, Yves, 1999. "Why is central Paris rich and downtown Detroit poor?: An amenity-based theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 91-107, January.
    27. Ferdinando Monte & Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "Commuting, Migration, and Local Employment Elasticities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3855-3890, December.
    28. Couture, Victor & Handbury, Jessie, 2020. "Urban revival in America," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    29. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2019. "Machine Learning Methods That Economists Should Know About," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 685-725, August.
    30. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Miscio, Antonio & Davis, Donald R., 2021. "Cities, lights, and skills in developing economies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    31. Kenneth Y. Chay & Michael Greenstone, 2005. "Does Air Quality Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 376-424, April.
    32. Philippe Bracke, 2015. "House Prices and Rents: Microevidence from a Matched Data Set in Central London," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 403-431, June.
    33. Marcel Henkel & Tobias Seidel & Jens Suedekum, 2021. "Fiscal Transfers in the Spatial Economy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 433-468, November.
    34. Shen, Lily & Ross, Stephen, 2021. "Information value of property description: A Machine learning approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    35. Hilber, Christian Albin Lukas & Mense, Andreas, 2021. "Why have house prices risen so much more than rents in superstar cities?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    36. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    37. Robert J. Hill, 2013. "Hedonic Price Indexes For Residential Housing: A Survey, Evaluation And Taxonomy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 879-914, December.
    38. Seidel, Tobias & Wickerath, Jan, 2020. "Rush hours and urbanization," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    39. Lopez, Esteban & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2018. "Housing price indices for small spatial units," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 57-71.
    40. Wheaton, William C, 1977. "Income and Urban Residence: An Analysis of Consumer Demand for Location," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 620-631, September.
    41. John R. Knight & C. F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 1994. "List price signaling and buyer behavior in the housing market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, pages 177-195.
    42. Kristoffer Moeller, 2018. "Culturally clustered or in the cloud? How amenities drive firm location decision in Berlin," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 728-758, September.
    43. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    44. Sanghoon Lee & Jeffrey Lin, 2018. "Natural Amenities, Neighbourhood Dynamics, and Persistence in the Spatial Distribution of Income," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 663-694.
    45. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    46. Leigh Linden & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2008. "Estimates of the Impact of Crime Risk on Property Values from Megan's Laws," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1103-1127, June.
    47. Robert J. Hill & Michael Scholz, 2018. "Can Geospatial Data Improve House Price Indexes? A Hedonic Imputation Approach with Splines," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(4), pages 737-756, December.
    48. Sims David P, 2011. "Rent Control Rationing and Community Composition: Evidence from Massachusetts," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-30, May.
    49. Gabriel Ahlfeldt, 2011. "If Alonso Was Right: Modeling Accessibility And Explaining The Residential Land Gradient," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 318-338, May.
    50. Sunding, David L. & Swoboda, Aaron M., 2010. "Hedonic analysis with locally weighted regression: An application to the shadow cost of housing regulation in Southern California," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 550-573, November.
    51. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2019. "Machine Learning Methods Economists Should Know About," Research Papers 3776, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    52. LeRoy, Stephen F. & Sonstelie, Jon, 1983. "Paradise lost and regained: Transportation innovation, income, and residential location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 67-89, January.
    53. Lyons, Ronan C., 2019. "Can list prices accurately capture housing price trends? Insights from extreme markets conditions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 228-232.
    54. de Bellefon, Marie-Pierre & Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent & Gorin, Clément, 2021. "Delineating urban areas using building density," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    55. Darren K. Hayunga & R. Kelley Pace, 2017. "List Prices in the US Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 155-184, August.
    56. Mense, Andreas & Michelsen, Claus & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2023. "Rent Control, Market Segmentation, and Misallocation: Causal Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Intervention," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    57. John M. Clapp, 2004. "A Semiparametric Method for Estimating Local House Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 127-160, March.
    58. Richard Meese & Nancy Wallace, 1991. "Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Hedonic Price Models and the Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 308-332, September.
    59. Breidenbach, Philipp & Eilers, Lea & Fries, Jan, 2022. "Temporal dynamics of rent regulations – The case of the German rent control," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    60. Albouy, David & Lue, Bert, 2015. "Driving to opportunity: Local rents, wages, commuting, and sub-metropolitan quality of life," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 74-92.
    61. Büchler, Simon & Ehrlich, Maximilian v. & Schöni, Olivier, 2021. "The amplifying effect of capitalization rates on housing supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julien Pascal, 2023. "Rental housing market and directed search," BCL working papers 179, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Bachtrögler-Unger, Julia & Dolls, Mathias & Krolage, Carla & Schüle, Paul & Taubenböck, Hannes & Weigand, Matthias, 2023. "EU cohesion policy on the ground: Analyzing small-scale effects using satellite data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Molloy, Raven, 2024. "JUE insight: Differences in rent growth by income from 1985 to 2021 and implications for inflation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Duso, Tomaso & Michelsen, Claus & Schaefer, Maximilian & Tran, Kevin Ducbao, 2024. "Airbnb and rental markets: Evidence from Berlin," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Michał Hebdzyński, 2024. "Price-setting factors or revealed preferences? How to understand the results of hedonic models and hedonic indices of the housing rental market that base on listings data?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(4), pages 519-550.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hybel, Jesper & Mulalic, Ismir, 2022. "Transportation and quality of life," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 107-125.
    2. Hybel, Jesper & Mulalic, Ismir, 2021. "Transportation and Quality of Life: Evidence from Denmark," Working Papers 14-2021, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    3. Cuberes, David & Roberts, Jennifer & Sechel, Cristina, 2019. "Household location in English cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 120-135.
    4. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Nitsch, Volker & Wendland, Nicolai, 2019. "Ease vs. noise: Long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2015. "Urban Land Use," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 467-560, Elsevier.
    6. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Volker Nitsch & Nicolai Wendland, 2019. "Ease versus noise: long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," CEP Discussion Papers dp1631, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Seidel, Tobias & Wickerath, Jan, 2020. "Rush hours and urbanization," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Gehr, Katja & Pflüger, Michael P., 2023. "The Worth of Cities in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 16127, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Chen, Ruoyu & Jiang, Hanchen & Quintero, Luis E., 2023. "Measuring the value of rent stabilization and understanding its implications for racial inequality: Evidence from New York City," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Wang, Yixuan, 2024. "Urban Redevelopment and Gentrification: Evidence from the Atlanta BeltLine," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343550, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Dávid Krisztián Nagy, 2021. "Quantitative Economic Geography Meets History: Questions, Answers and Challenges," Working Papers 1249, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. Stephen J. Redding, 2021. "Suburbanization in the United States 1970-2010," Working Papers 286, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    14. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Barr, Jason, 2022. "The economics of skyscrapers: A synthesis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Stef Proost & Jacques-François Thisse, 2019. "What Can Be Learned from Spatial Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 575-643, September.
    16. Redding, Stephen & Nakajima, Kentaro & Miyauchi, Yuhei, 2021. "Consumption access and agglomeration: evidence from smartphone data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114353, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    18. Gabriel Loumeau & Christian Stettler, 2021. "Fiscal Autonomy and Self-Determination," CESifo Working Paper Series 9445, CESifo.
    19. Wookun Kim, 2023. "Migration, Commuting, and the Spatial Distribution of Public Spending," Departmental Working Papers 2305, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    20. Rainald Borck & Niklas Gohl, 2021. "Gentrification and Affordable Housing Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 9454, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    index; real estate; price; property; rent;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.