The Effect of Public Sector Relocations on Regional Development in Germany

Regional economic disparities within countries have become increasingly large, often surpassing the disparities observed between countries. To address regional inequality, governments have been turning away from standard subsidies and are experimenting with public employment reallocation as a place-based policy. This paper estimates the causal effect of public employment reallocation on local labor markets. I study the 'Heimatstrategie,' which relocates around 3,000 public sector jobs from Munich to economically lagging regions in Bavaria, Germany. Using novel data on 60 agency relocations between 2015 and 2025, I exploit the government's quantitative selection criteria for receiving municipalities and implement a long-differences design comparing treated Bavarian municipalities to Mahalanobis-matched control municipalities in other German states. My estimates show that relocations increased private sector employment shares by up to 2.3%, reduced unemployment rates by up to 11.9%, and increased local population by up to 1.6% without harming sending locations. These results correspond to a public-to-private jobs multiplier of 1.08. To assess general equilibrium effects the relocation program, I implement a quantitative spatial model with a two-sector (public and private) framework showing modest increases in amenities through the relocation counterfactual and negligible welfare effects.