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Housing cycles and efficiency

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  • Geoffrey Meen

Abstract

This paper has four objectives. First, a small model of the UK housing market is constructed, including equations for house prices, housing starts, construction costs and interest rates. The model is used in an analysis of housing market cycles, employing techniques developed for the analysis of general business cycles. Second, the model is used to consider housing market efficiency. Third, the model is extended to examine the relationship between house prices and property transactions. Finally, the role of monetary policy in the generation of housing cycles and stability is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey Meen, 2000. "Housing cycles and efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-140, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:47:y:2000:i:2:p:114-140
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9485.00156
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David M. Williams, 2009. "House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 432, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Tsai, I-Chun, 2019. "Relationships among regional housing markets: Evidence on adjustments of housing burden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-318.
    4. McGinnity, Frances & Russell, Helen & Alamir, Anousheh, 2024. "17 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), where are we now with credit and house prices in the Irish residential market?," Papers WP779, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Oliver W. Lerbs, 2014. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-210, September.
    6. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    7. Harnos László, 2018. "Cycles of the Housing Market in Hungary from the Economic Crisis until Today," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 64(2), pages 3-14, June.
    8. Kumar Verma, Akhilesh & McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Assessing expectations of European house prices," Papers WP783, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    10. Ball, Michael & Meen, Geoffrey & Nygaard, Christian, 2010. "Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 255-268, December.
    11. Nikodem Szumilo, 2019. "The spatial consequences of the housing affordability crisis in England," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 51(6), pages 1264-1286, September.
    12. Gürtler, Marc & Rehan, Christine, 2008. "Preisbildende Faktoren von privaten Immobilien," Working Papers IF28V1, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    13. Arrazola, María & de Hevia, José & Romero, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2014. "Determinants of the Spanish housing market over three decades and three booms: Long run supply and demand elasticities," Working Paper Series 18852, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    14. Diana Kasparova & Michael White, 2001. "The Responsiveness Of House Prices To Macroeconomic Forces: A Cross-Countr Y Comparison," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 385-416.
    15. David Gray & Caroline Elliott, 2015. "Are prices of New dwellings different? A spectral analysis of UK property vintages," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 993860-9938, December.
    16. Eden Hatzvi & Glenn Otto, 2008. "Prices, Rents and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the Sydney Housing Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(267), pages 405-420, December.
    17. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2010. "Housing Supply, Land Costs and Price Adjustment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 325-353, June.
    18. Gábor Márk Pellényi, 2019. "Regional Spillovers in the Hungarian Housing Market: Evidence from a Spatio-Temporal Model," European Economy - Discussion Papers 095, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2006. "Housing Supply and Price Adjustment," Working Papers 06_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    20. Paschalis Arvanitidis, 2006. "Property Market Purpose Efficiency: An Exploratory Analysis From an Institutional Economics Perspective," ERSA conference papers ersa06p567, European Regional Science Association.

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