IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vuw/vuwcpf/18852.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of the Spanish housing market over three decades and three booms: Long run supply and demand elasticities

Author

Listed:
  • Arrazola, María
  • de Hevia, José
  • Romero, Desiderio
  • Sanz-Sanz, José Félix

Abstract

This paper offers a quantitative analysis of housing supply and demand in Spain. To this end, it formulates a model in line with the traditional models of the literature. Using Spanish data for the period 1975 to 2009, reduced form and structural models are estimated. The results obtained show that faced with situations of disequilibrium prices adjust more rapidly than stock. Similarly, they demonstrate that demand shows low sensitivity to variations in prices and real interest rates. By contrast, it is highly sensitive to demographic changes and the evolution of the labor market. The evidence confirms that permanent income has greater weight than prices as a determinant of demand. Moreover, supply is very sensitive to variations in prices and interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Arrazola, María & de Hevia, José & Romero, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2014. "Determinants of the Spanish housing market over three decades and three booms: Long run supply and demand elasticities," Working Paper Series 18852, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:18852
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/18852
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Knudsen, Dan, 1994. "Residential investments and house prices in Denmark," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 201-214, April.
    2. Manuel Jaen & Agustin Molina, 1994. "Un análisis empírico de la tenencia y demanda de vivienda en Andalucía," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(1), pages 143-164, January.
    3. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    4. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
    5. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    6. Kenny, Geoff, 2003. "Asymmetric adjustment costs and the dynamics of housing supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1097-1111, December.
    7. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    8. Mercè Carreras-i-Solanas & Oscar Mascarilla-i-Miró & Yuri Yegorov, 2004. "The evolution and the relationship of house prices and rents in Barcelona, 1970-2002," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 19-56, January.
    9. Gabriel Lee & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler & Bernhard Felderer & Christian Helmenstein, 2001. "Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 259-276, September.
    10. Mas Ivars Matilde & Pérez García Francisco & Uriel Jiménez Ezequiel (ed.), 2007. "El stock y los servicios del capital en España y su distribución territorial (1964-2003): nueva metodología," Books, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation, number 201167, October.
    11. Blackley, Dixie M, 1999. "The Long-Run Elasticity of New Housing Supply in the United States: Empirical Evidence for 1950 to 1994," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 25-42, January.
    12. Geoffrey Meen, 2000. "Housing cycles and efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-140, May.
    13. Dan Andrews & Aida Caldera Sánchez & Åsa Johansson, 2011. "Housing Markets and Structural Policies in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 836, OECD Publishing.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Dan Andrews, 2011. "To Move or not to Move: What Drives Residential Mobility Rates in the OECD?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 846, OECD Publishing.
    16. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    17. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Residential Construction: Using the Urban Growth Model to Estimate Housing Supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 85-109, July.
    18. Ball, Michael & Meen, Geoffrey & Nygaard, Christian, 2010. "Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 255-268, December.
    19. Daniel Fernández-Kranz & Mark Hon, 2006. "A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 449-470, June.
    20. Poterba, James M, 1992. "Taxation and Housing: Old Questions, New Answers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 237-242, May.
    21. Riddel, Mary, 2004. "Housing-market disequilibrium: an examination of housing-market price and stock dynamics 1967-1998," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 120-135, June.
    22. Sau Kim Lum, 2002. "Market fundamentals, public policy and private gain: house price dynamics in Singapore," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 121-143, January.
    23. Mayo, Stephen K., 1981. "Theory and estimation in the economics of housing demand," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 95-116, July.
    24. Justo Manrique & Kalu Ojah, 2003. "The demand for housing in Spain: an endogenous switching regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 323-336.
    25. Mas Ivars Matilde & Pérez García Francisco & Uriel Jiménez Ezequiel (ed.), 2007. "El stock y los servicios del capital en España y su distribución territorial (1964-2005): nueva metodología," Books, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation, number 201175, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arrazola, María & de Hevia, José & Romero, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2014. "Determinants of the Spanish housing market over three decades and three booms: Long run supply and demand elasticities," Working Paper Series 3604, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    2. Anthony Owusu-Ansah, 2012. "Modelling the supply of new residential construction for local housing markets and estimation of housing supply price elasticities: The case of Aberdeen, UK," ERES eres2012_097, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2015. "Elasticidad precio de la oferta inmobiliaria en el Gran Santiago [Housing supply elasticity in Greater Santiago]," MPRA Paper 65012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2010. "Housing Supply, Land Costs and Price Adjustment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 325-353, June.
    5. Oliver W. Lerbs, 2014. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-210, September.
    6. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2006. "Housing Supply and Price Adjustment," Working Papers 06_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    7. Ball, Michael & Meen, Geoffrey & Nygaard, Christian, 2010. "Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 255-268, December.
    8. Bimonte, Salvatore & Stabile, Arsenio, 2015. "Local taxation and urban development. Testing for the side-effects of the Italian property tax," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 100-107.
    9. Tilak Abeysinghe & Jiaying Gu, 2016. "Estimating fundamental and affordable housing price trends: a study based on Singapore," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(49), pages 4783-4798, October.
    10. Caldera, Aida & Johansson, Åsa, 2013. "The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 231-249.
    11. Beenstock, Michael & Felsenstein, Daniel, 2015. "Estimating spatial spillover in housing construction with nonstationary panel data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 42-58.
    12. Wouter Vermeulen & Jan Rouwendal, 2007. "Housing Supply and Land Use Regulation in the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-058/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Oliver Lerbs, "undated". "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," Working Papers 201283, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    14. Oikarinen, Elias & Peltola, Risto & Valtonen, Eero, 2015. "Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants: The case of a small sparsely populated country," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 18-30.
    15. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    16. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
    17. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach," BERG Working Paper Series 99, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    18. Malpezzi, Stephen & Maclennan, Duncan, 2001. "The Long-Run Price Elasticity of Supply of New Residential Construction in the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 278-306, September.
    19. Joseph T. L. Ooi & Thao T. T. Le, 2012. "New Supply and Price Dynamics in the Singapore Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(7), pages 1435-1451, May.
    20. Geok Peng Yeap & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2020. "Supply elasticity of new housing supply in Malaysia: an analysis across housing sub-markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 807-820.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:18852. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library Technology Services (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fcvuwnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.