IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/oaefxx/v3y2015i1p993860.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are prices of New dwellings different? A spectral analysis of UK property vintages

Author

Listed:
  • David Gray

Abstract

The work makes two contributions to the literature on dynamic house prices. First, a house price ripple in cycles from Modern to Older dwellings is revealed and, second, as New housing is shown to have lower volatility than the other two. Using spectral analysis, it is argued that there is a 7½-year repeat buyer-second-hand cycle and a five year, first time buyer-New housing cycle, common to three house price vintages. These cycles reinforce each other every 15 years, which corresponds with a Minsky super-cycle in housing finance. The equity of the owner–occupier is fortified by higher house prices whereas New builds extract embedded equity from the market. Through programmes like Help-to-Buy 1, Government should support builders and facilitate market access to FTBs. However, to address the greater price instability that should follow, Government should impose a capital gains tax on the house seller.

Suggested Citation

  • David Gray, 2015. "Are prices of New dwellings different? A spectral analysis of UK property vintages," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 993860-9938, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:993860
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2014.993860
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/23322039.2014.993860
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carol Alexander & Michael Barrow, 1994. "Seasonality and Cointegration of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(10), pages 1667-1689, December.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-150, January.
    3. Meen, Geoffrey, 2000. "Housing Cycles and Efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-140, May.
    4. Bover, Olympia & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1989. "Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 97-136, March.
    5. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1985. "A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(10), pages 1369-1391, October.
    6. Steven Cook & Sean Holly, 2000. "Statistical Properties of UK House Prices: An Analysis of Disaggregated Vintages," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 37(11), pages 2045-2051, October.
    7. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    8. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
    9. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    10. David Gray, 2012. "District House Price Movements in England and Wales 1997–2007: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(7), pages 1411-1434, May.
    11. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
    12. Dusansky Richard & Wilson Paul W., 1993. "The Demand for Housing: Theoretical Considerations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 120-138, October.
    13. Smith, Lawrence B. & Ho, Michael H. C., 1996. "The Relative Price Differential between Higher and Lower Priced Homes," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, March.
    14. Pakko, Michael R, 2000. "The Cyclical Relationship between Output and Prices: An Analysis in the Frequency Domain," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 382-399, August.
    15. Christopher J. Mayer, 1993. "Taxes, income distribution, and the real estate cycle: why all houses do not appreciate at the same rate," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 39-50.
    16. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Stephen E. Roulac & Waldo L. Born, 1999. "Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 7-68.
    17. N. Edward Coulson & Daniel P. McMillen, 2007. "The Dynamics of Intraurban Quantile House Price Indexes," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(8), pages 1517-1537, July.
    18. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    19. Kim Hiang Liow, 2007. "Cycles and common cycles in real estate markets," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 287-305, July.
    20. Andrew Benito, 2006. "How does the down-payment constraint affect the UK housing market?," Bank of England working papers 294, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:993860. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/OAEF20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.