Dinámica del Consumo de Gasolina en Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua
[Gasoline Consumption Dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua]
This research analyzes short-run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in El Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juárez. Out-of-sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of to 1 to 24 months into the future.
|Date of creation:||11 Nov 2011|
|Date of revision:||15 Jun 2012|
|Publication status:||Published in Estudios Fronterizos 26.13(2012): pp. 91-107|
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Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
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