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Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations

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  • Roy H. Webb

Abstract

In his article, Vector Autoregressions as a Tool for Forecast Evaluation, Roy H. Webb proposes that VAR forecasts be used as a standard of comparison for other forecasts. He begins by explaining how conventional forecasting models are constructed and used, and summarizes a few common objections to these models. He then describes the VAR methodology and compares forecasts from a simple VAR model with those from a consulting firm that uses a conventional model and with a series of consensus forecasts. The VAR model holds its own in this competition; in fact, only the VAR model is able to predict the 1981-1982 recession one year before its occurrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Roy H. Webb, 1984. "Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 70(Jan), pages 3-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1984:i:jan:p:3-11:n:v.70no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judd, John P & Scadding, John L, 1982. "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function: A Survey of the Post-1973 Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 993-1023, September.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    3. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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    1. Arnold Cote, K. Nicole & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2010. "Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 32116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2011.
    2. Darrat, Ali F. & Mukherjee, Tarun K., 1995. "Inter-industry differences and the impact of operating and financial leverages on equity risk," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 141-155.
    3. Michael A. Conte & Ali F. Darrat, 1993. "Testing Alternative Views Of Government Budgeting," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 19-40, September.
    4. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Ana Cecilia Nava, 2004. "Short-Term Water Dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico," Urban/Regional 0404001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gary L. Shoesmith, 1990. "The Forecasting Accuracy of Regional Bayesian VAR Models with Alternative National Variable Choices," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 13(3), pages 257-269, December.
    6. Roberto Tinajero & Thomas M. Fullerton & Lawrence Waldman, 2005. "Regional econometric income forecast accuracy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 325-333.
    7. William M. Lupoletti & Roy H. Webb, 1984. "Defining and improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts : contributions from a VAR model," Working Paper 84-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    8. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.

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