Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations
In his article, “Vector Autoregressions as a Tool for Forecast Evaluation,” Roy H. Webb proposes that VAR forecasts be used as a standard of comparison for other forecasts. He begins by explaining how conventional forecasting models are constructed and used, and summarizes a few common objections to these models. He then describes the VAR methodology and compares forecasts from a simple VAR model with those from a consulting firm that uses a conventional model and with a series of consensus forecasts. The VAR model holds its own in this competition; in fact, only the VAR model is able to predict the 1981-1982 recession one year before its occurrence.
Volume (Year): (1984)
Issue (Month): Jan ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.richmondfed.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/ Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1984:i:jan:p:3-11:n:v.70no.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Pascasio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.