IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pab/rmcpee/v16y2013i1p216-249.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Elasticidades de demanda por electricidad e impactos macroecon_omicos del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia || Elasticity of Electricity Demand and Macroeconomics Impacts of Electricity Price in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Espinosa Acuña, Óscar A.

    () (Grupo IMEMC, Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

  • Vaca González, Paola A.

    () (Grupo IMEMC, Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

  • Avila Forero, Raúl A.

    () (Coalición para la Promoción de la Industria Colombiana. Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

Abstract

El presente estudio analiza las elasticidades de demanda e ingreso de la energía eléctrica para uso doméstico e industrial para Colombia (2000-2011), mediante la estimación de ecuaciones de demanda por MCO. Asimismo, se estiman impactos en variables macroeconómicas que generarán variaciones en el precio de la energía eléctrica, mediante un VARX frecuentista y un VARX bayesiano (BVARX), utilizando la metodología apriorística de Sims y Zha (1998). Se concluye que la energía eléctrica es un bien normal para la industria y necesario para la demanda doméstica. Además, se tiene que frente a incrementos en el precio de la energía de aproximadamente un 20%, el crecimiento trimestral del PIB disminuye hasta en un 1%, estabilizándose año y medio después de ocurrir el choque positivo. || This study analyzes the elasticities of demand and income from electricity for domestic and industrial use, for Colombia (2000-2011), by estimating demand equations by OLS. The impacts on macroeconomic variables, which generate changes in the price of electricity, are also estimated by using a VARX Frequentist and a Bayesian VARX (BVARX) and by using the a priori methodology of Sims and Zha (1998). It is concluded that electricity is a normal good for the industry and a necessary good for the domestic demand. Furthermore, when energy prices increase approximately 20%, the quarterly GDP growth falls to 1% and it is stabilized one year and a half after the positive shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Espinosa Acuña, Óscar A. & Vaca González, Paola A. & Avila Forero, Raúl A., 2013. "Elasticidades de demanda por electricidad e impactos macroecon_omicos del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia || Elasticity of Electricity Demand and Macroeconomics Impacts of Electricity Price," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 216-249, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:16:y:2013:i:1:p:216-249
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.upo.es/RevMetCuant/pdf/vol16/art85.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.upo.es/RevMetCuant/bibtex.php?id=85
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Forecasting and policy analysis with Bayesian vector autoregression models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
    2. Juan Ricardo Perilla Jiménez, 2010. "El impacto de los precios del petróleo sobre el crecimiento económico en Colombia," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, May.
    3. Taylor, Lester D., 1979. "On modelling the residential demand for electricity by time-of-day," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 97-115, January.
    4. Santiago Urbiztondo, Juan Manuel Rojas, 2005. "La Reforma del Sector Eléctrico en Colombia: Breve Análisis y Crítica Constructiva," Working Papers 85, FIEL.
    5. Lakshmanan, T. R. & Anderson, William, 1980. "Residential energy demand in the United States : A regional econometric analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 371-386, August.
    6. José Miguel Benavente & Alexander Galetovic & Ricardo Sanhueza & Pablo Serra, 2005. "Estimando la Demanda Residencial por Electricidad en Chile: El Consumo es Sensible al Precio," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 31-61.
    7. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Pashourtidou, Nicoletta, 2007. "An empirical analysis of electricity consumption in Cyprus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 183-198, March.
    8. Arthur, Maria de Fátima S.R. & Bond, Craig A. & Willson, Bryan, 2012. "Estimation of elasticities for domestic energy demand in Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 398-409.
    9. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    10. Patricio Jaramillo, 2009. "Estimación de Var Bayesianos para la Economía Chilena," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 24(1), pages 101-126, Junio.
    11. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    12. Wills, John, 1981. "Residential demand for electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 249-255, October.
    13. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    14. Galetovic, Alexander & Muñoz, Cristián M., 2010. "La elasticidad de la demanda por electricidad y la política energética," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 313-341, abril-jun.
    15. Lozano-Espitia, Luis Ignacio & Rincón-Castro, Hernán, 2011. "Formación de las tarifas eléctricas e inflación en Colombia," Chapters,in: López Enciso, Enrique & Ramírez Giraldo, María Teresa (ed.), Formación de precios y salarios en Colombia T.1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 445-488 Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Smith, V. Kerry, 1980. "Estimating the price elasticity of US electricity demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 81-85, April.
    17. Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "The importance of energy quality in energy intensive manufacturing: Evidence from panel cointegration and panel FMOLS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1819-1825.
    18. Héctor Zárate & Norberto Rodríguez & Margarita Marín, 2013. "El tamaño de las empresas y la transmisión de la política monetaria en Colombia: una aplicación con la encuesta mensual de expectativas económicas," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    19. Carlos Medina & Leonardo Fabio Morales, 2007. "Demanda por Servicios Públicos Domiciliarios en Colombia y Subsidios: Implicaciones sobre el Bienestar," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004293, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    20. Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuña & Paola Andrea Vaca González, 2013. "¿Existe relación alguna entre Déficit Fiscal eInflación? Antes y después de la independencia del Banco de la República en Colombia," Econógrafos - Escuela de Economía 012805, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID.
    21. Hondroyiannis, George, 2004. "Estimating residential demand for electricity in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 319-334, May.
    22. Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
    23. Seale, James Jr. & Walker, Wayne E. & Kim, In-Moo, 1991. "The demand for energy : Cross-country evidence using the Florida model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 33-40, January.
    24. Maddock, Rodney & Castano, Elkin & Vella, Frank, 1992. "Estimating Electricity Demand: The Cost of Linearising the Budget Constraint," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 350-354, May.
    25. Deaton, Angus, 1990. "Price elasticities from survey data : Extensions and Indonesian results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 281-309, June.
    26. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    27. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    29. Lijesen, Mark G., 2007. "The real-time price elasticity of electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 249-258, March.
    30. Hausman, Jerry A, 1985. "The Econometrics of Nonlinear Budget Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1255-1282, November.
    31. Boonekamp, Piet G.M., 2007. "Price elasticities, policy measures and actual developments in household energy consumption - A bottom up analysis for the Netherlands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 133-157, March.
    32. Arnberg, Soren & Bjorner, Thomas Bue, 2007. "Substitution between energy, capital and labour within industrial companies: A micro panel data analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 122-136, May.
    33. Luis J. Álvarez & Fernando C. Ballabriga & Javier Jareño, 1995. "Un modelo macroeconométrico trimestral para la economía española," Working Papers 9524, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    34. Huq, Md.Shamsul & Dynes, J.Graham, 1982. "The price elasticity of the residential demand for electricity in the Vepco service area," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 7(10), pages 829-837.
    35. Mauricio Santa María & Nils-Henrik Von Der Fehr & Jaime Millán & Juan Benavides, 2009. "El mercado de la energía eléctrica en Colombia: características, evolución e impacto sobre otros sectores," Cuadernos de Fedesarrollo 009287, Fedesarrollo.
    36. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    energía eléctrica; elasticidades; ecuación de demanda; impactos macroeconómicos; MCO; BVARX; electric power; elasticities; demand equation; macroeconomic impacts; GLS; BVARX;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:16:y:2013:i:1:p:216-249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publicación Digital - UPO). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dmupoes.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.