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Elasticidades de demanda por electricidad e impactos macroecon_omicos del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia || Elasticity of Electricity Demand and Macroeconomics Impacts of Electricity Price in Colombia

Author

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  • Espinosa Acuña, Óscar A.

    (Grupo IMEMC, Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

  • Vaca González, Paola A.

    (Grupo IMEMC, Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

  • Avila Forero, Raúl A.

    (Coalición para la Promoción de la Industria Colombiana. Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

Abstract

El presente estudio analiza las elasticidades de demanda e ingreso de la energía eléctrica para uso doméstico e industrial para Colombia (2000-2011), mediante la estimación de ecuaciones de demanda por MCO. Asimismo, se estiman impactos en variables macroeconómicas que generarán variaciones en el precio de la energía eléctrica, mediante un VARX frecuentista y un VARX bayesiano (BVARX), utilizando la metodología apriorística de Sims y Zha (1998). Se concluye que la energía eléctrica es un bien normal para la industria y necesario para la demanda doméstica. Además, se tiene que frente a incrementos en el precio de la energía de aproximadamente un 20%, el crecimiento trimestral del PIB disminuye hasta en un 1%, estabilizándose año y medio después de ocurrir el choque positivo. || This study analyzes the elasticities of demand and income from electricity for domestic and industrial use, for Colombia (2000-2011), by estimating demand equations by OLS. The impacts on macroeconomic variables, which generate changes in the price of electricity, are also estimated by using a VARX Frequentist and a Bayesian VARX (BVARX) and by using the a priori methodology of Sims and Zha (1998). It is concluded that electricity is a normal good for the industry and a necessary good for the domestic demand. Furthermore, when energy prices increase approximately 20%, the quarterly GDP growth falls to 1% and it is stabilized one year and a half after the positive shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Espinosa Acuña, Óscar A. & Vaca González, Paola A. & Avila Forero, Raúl A., 2013. "Elasticidades de demanda por electricidad e impactos macroecon_omicos del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia || Elasticity of Electricity Demand and Macroeconomics Impacts of Electricity Price," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 216-249, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:16:y:2013:i:1:p:216-249
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    energía eléctrica; elasticidades; ecuación de demanda; impactos macroeconómicos; MCO; BVARX; electric power; elasticities; demand equation; macroeconomic impacts; GLS; BVARX;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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