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Estimación de Var Bayesianos para la Economía Chilena

  • Patricio Jaramillo

In this paper I estimate Bayesian vector autoregressive models (BVAR) for the Chilean economy. Under this approach, I study the transmission mechanisms of the monetary policy and forecasting for the main macroeconomics variables. I contrast these results with standard VAR estimates and discuss the implications for monetary policy design.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 508.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:508
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  1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
  2. CHUMACERO Rómulo, . "A Toolkit for Analyzing Alternative Policies in the Chilean Economy," EcoMod2003 330700037, EcoMod.
  3. Condon, Timothy & Corbo, Vittorio & de Melo, Jaime, 1985. "Productivity growth, external shocks, and capital inflows in Chile: A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 379-405.
  4. Villani, Mattias, 2001. "Bayesian prediction with cointegrated vector autoregressions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605.
  5. Raphael Bergoeing & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Testing Real Business Cycles Models in an Emerging Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 159, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Raphael Bergoeing & Juan Enrique Suárez, . "¿Qué debemos explicar?: Reportando las Fluctuaciones Agregadas de la Economía Chilena," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv112, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  7. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," MPRA Paper 11360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Rangan Gupta & Moses m. Sichei, 2006. "A Bvar Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 391-409, 09.
  9. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 1999. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Economics Working Papers 443, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  11. Fabián Gredig & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Rodrigo Valdés, 2007. "The Monetary Policy Horizon in Chile and Other Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 438, Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
  14. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  15. Daniel Racette & Jacques Raynauld & Christian Sigouin, . "An Up-to-Date and Improved BVAR Model of the Canadian Economy," Staff Working Papers 94-4, Bank of Canada.
  16. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  17. O'Ryan, Raúl & De Miguel, Carlos J. & Pereira, Mauricio & Lagos, Camilo, 2008. "Impactos económicos y sociales de shocks energéticos en Chile: un análisis de equilibrio general," Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo 136, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  18. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile.
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