IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v13y2025i6p168-d1675909.html

Assessing the Impact of the Real Exchange Rate on Okun’s Misery Index in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Sánchez

    (Facultad de Estudios Superiores Acatlán, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Naucalpan de Juárez 53150, Mexico)

  • Ericka Judith Arias Guzmán

    (Facultad de Estudios Superiores Acatlán, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Naucalpan de Juárez 53150, Mexico)

Abstract

The exchange rate is among the main variables determining foreign trade, as it affects the prices of both exports and imports. Meanwhile, Okun’s misery index (MI) attempts to synthesize the main issues affecting a society by combining two major macroeconomic variables—unemployment and inflation. This study examines how Mexico’s bilateral real exchange rate index with the United States influences Okun’s misery index from 2005Q1 to 2023Q3. A quantitative analysis considering both the long- and short-run relationship between Okun’s MI and the real exchange rate was performed. The results show a unidirectional relationship between the exchange rate and the misery index in the long term, as indicated by the Toda–Yamamoto test. An unrestricted vector autoregressive model was used for the short-run analysis and found that depreciation increases the MI. A variance decomposition analysis shows that the real exchange rate considerably explains variations in the MI, whereas a historical decomposition analysis suggests that this relationship primarily occurs during periods of crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Sánchez & Ericka Judith Arias Guzmán, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of the Real Exchange Rate on Okun’s Misery Index in Mexico," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:13:y:2025:i:6:p:168-:d:1675909
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/6/168/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/6/168/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julio Cesar Riascos, 2009. "El índice de malestar económico o índice de miseria de Okun: breve análisis de casos, 2001-2008," Revista Tendencias, Universidad de Narino, vol. 10(2), pages 9-40.
    2. Shu-Chen Chang, 2011. "The interrelationship between exchange-rate uncertainty and unemployment for South Korea and Taiwan: Evidence from a vector autoregressive approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 125, pages 65-82.
    3. Muhammad, Andrew & D’Souza, Anna & Amponsah, William, 2013. "Violence, Instability, and Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 20-31.
    4. Ivan K. Cohen & Fabrizio Ferretti & Bryan McIntosh, 2014. "Decomposing the misery index: A dynamic approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    6. Nianyong Wang & Muhammad Haroon Shah & Kishwar Ali & Shah Abbas & Sami Ullah, 2019. "Financial Structure, Misery Index, and Economic Growth: Time Series Empirics from Pakistan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    7. Zahra Bakhshi & Mehrzad Ebrahimi, 2016. "The effect of real exchange rate on unemployment," Marketing and Branding Research, EUROKD, vol. 3(1), pages 4-13.
    8. Feldmann, Horst, 2011. "The unemployment effect of exchange rate volatility in industrial countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 268-271, June.
    9. repec:eid:wpaper:01/11 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Patricio Jaramillo, 2009. "Estimación de VAR Bayesianos para la Economía Chilena," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 24(1), pages 101-126, Junio.
    11. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Sánchez López, 2022. "Measuring the Effect of the Misery Index on International Tourist Departures: Empirical Evidence from Mexico," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali, 2023. "Public Policy and Economic Misery Nexus: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing World," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 56-73, May.
    3. Parsons, Brandon & Rabhi, Ayoub, 2025. "Shifting sands: How exchange rate volatility shapes income distribution in high-income countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 89-100.
    4. Zahra Bakhshi & Mehrzad Ebrahimi, 2016. "The effect of real exchange rate on unemployment," Marketing and Branding Research, EUROKD, vol. 3(1), pages 4-13.
    5. Ojonugwa Usman & Osama Mohammed Elsalih, 2018. "Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, September.
    6. Elias Gakuru & Shaohua Yang, 2025. "Misery Index Improvement: A Review Based on Theoretical and Empirical Evidence," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 3970-3995, March.
    7. Fernando Sánchez López, 2024. "Tourism and Economic Misery: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Mexico," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, April.
    8. Mohammad A. Razzaque & Sayema Haque Bidisha & Bazlul Haque Khondker, 2017. "Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 12(1), pages 42-64, April.
    9. Cruz, Manuel Máximo & Gahn, Santiago José & Morlin, Guilherme Spinato, 2022. "State-owned and multinational enterprises partnership as an import substitution strategy: A narrative ARDL approach to the case of oil contracts in Argentina (1958–1962)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 213-223.
    10. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010. "Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3329-3341, July.
    12. Payne, James E., 2009. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 575-577, April.
    13. Villanthenkodath, Muhammed Ashiq & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2021. "Does economic growth respond to electricity consumption asymmetrically in Bangladesh? The implication for environmental sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    15. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    16. Metin Dinçer & Nezir Köse & Emre Ünal, 2024. "The role of socioeconomic and behavioral factors in HIV-related deaths," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    18. Mikhail B. Petrov & Leonid A. Serkov, 2024. "Analysis of Long-Term and Short-Term Relationships between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Industrialized Regions of Russia," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(1), pages 136-158.
    19. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    20. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:13:y:2025:i:6:p:168-:d:1675909. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.