IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v51y2013icp20-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Violence, Instability, and Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad, Andrew
  • D’Souza, Anna
  • Amponsah, William

Abstract

We examine the implications of the violence and instability following the 2007 Kenyan elections and how it affected cut flower trade between Kenya and the EU. Using the Rotterdam demand model, we find that the post-election violence had a negative impact on EU imports from Kenya equivalent to €33 million – which is significant given the importance of flowers to Kenya’s economy. Results show that even a short period of violence can have an effect on trade since instability in an exporting country causes importers to source from other countries perceived as less risky (persisting even when order is restored).

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad, Andrew & D’Souza, Anna & Amponsah, William, 2013. "Violence, Instability, and Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 20-31.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:51:y:2013:i:c:p:20-31
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.05.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X13001162
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank & International Finance Corporation, "undated". "Doing Business in Kenya 2012," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13419, The World Bank.
    2. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    3. Giancarlo Moschini & Karl D. Meilke, 1989. "Modeling the Pattern of Structural Change in U.S. Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 253-261.
    4. Beach, Charles M & MacKinnon, James G, 1979. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Singular Equation Systems with Autoregressive Disturbances," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(2), pages 459-464, June.
    5. Barrientos, Stephanie & Dolan, Catherine & Tallontire, Anne, 2003. "A Gendered Value Chain Approach to Codes of Conduct in African Horticulture," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1511-1526, September.
    6. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
    7. Marianna Belloc, 2006. "Institutions and International Trade: A Reconsideration of Comparative Advantage," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 3-26, February.
    8. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    9. Clements, Kenneth W. & Theil, Henri, 1978. "A simple method of estimating price elasticities in international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-137.
    10. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1007-1032, July.
    11. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May.
    12. Amano, Robert A. & Wirjanto, Tony S., 1997. "Adjustment costs and import demand behavior: evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 461-476, June.
    13. Lee, Jack C., 1988. "Nested Rotterdam model : Applications to marketing research with special reference to telecommunications demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 193-206.
    14. Toshinobu Matsuda, 2005. "Differential Demand Systems: A Further Look at Barten's Synthesis," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 607-619, January.
    15. Christopher Ksoll & Rocco Macchiavello & Ameet Morjaria, 2010. "The Effect of Ethnic Violence on an Export- Oriented Industry," CID Working Papers 48, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    16. Ohtani, Kazuhiro & Kakimoto, Sumio & Abe, Kenzo, 1990. "A gradual switching regression model with a flexible transition path," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 43-48, January.
    17. William A. Barnett, 1979. "Theoretical Foundations for the Rotterdam Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 109-130.
    18. Andrew Muhammad, 2009. "Would African Countries Benefit from the Termination of Kenya's Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU? An Analysis of EU Demand for Imported Roses," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 220-238.
    19. Seale, James L., Jr. & Sparks, Amy L. & Buxton, Boyd M., 1992. "A Rotterdam Application To International Trade In Fresh Apples: A Differential Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
    20. Wolak, Frank A & Kolstad, Charles D, 1991. "A Model of Homogeneous Input Demand under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 514-538, June.
    21. J. M. Gil & B. Dhehibi & M. Ben Kaabia & A. M. Angulo, 2004. "Non-stationarity and the import demand for virgin olive oil in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1859-1869.
    22. Hikaru Hanawa Peterson & Yun-Ju (Kelly) Chen, 2005. "The impact of BSE on Japanese retail meat demand," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 313-327.
    23. Riisgaard, Lone, 2009. "Global Value Chains, Labor Organization and Private Social Standards: Lessons from East African Cut Flower Industries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 326-340, February.
    24. Theil, Henri & Clements, Kenneth W., 1978. "A differential approach to U.S. import demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-252.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Faith Justus, 2015. "Coupled effects on Kenyan horticulture following the 2008/2009 post-election violence and the 2010 volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1205-1218, March.
    2. Steen, Marie, 2014. "Measuring Price–Quantity Relationships in the Dutch Flower Market," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(02), May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:51:y:2013:i:c:p:20-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.